According to Cofeed, on the week as of Oct 30, details of soybean stocks and soybean meal stocks and outstanding contracts in coastal regions are as follows:

Soybean: As crushers lower down operation rates as expected and with the decline larger than expected this week, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 2.09 mln tonnes. And the volume of soybeans arriving at mills gets an increase. Hence, soybean stocks follow to mount higher in coastal regions this week. In the week as of Oct 30, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,810,000 tonnes, up 273,600 tonnes by 4.94% from 5,536,400 tonnes last week and up by 95.95% from 2,964,900 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on whether soybean crush would stay high.

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks fall this week on a larger-than-expected decline in soybean crush and on fair delivery. In the week as of Oct 30, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 855,100 tonnes, down 66,400 tonnes by 7.21% from 921,500 tonnes last week but up by 77.70% from 481,200 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush is predicted to stay above 2.10 mln tonnes next week , soybean meal stocks may slow down declines.

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts continues decreasing this week. In the week as of Oct 30, outstanding contracts in mills in domestic coastal regions hold 4,197,100 tonnes not delivered, down 309,600 tonnes by 6.87% from 4,506,700 tonnes last week and up by 3.70% from 4,047,200 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years