Today (Nov 3), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Oilseeds:

Imported soybean: Uruguayan soybean is offered at 4,800-4,850 CNY/tonne at Shandong port today. The supply of imported soybeans is gradually decreasing, which is bullish to the market. But the influx of new domestic soybeans is entering the market, and the quality is also improving, so that purchasers turn to choose domestic soybeans. Overall, short-term imported soybean market is predicted to steady.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices mainly steadily decline by 0.01-0.06 CNY/kg today. The delivery of cottonseed is still under impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in Xinjiang. Moreover, cottonseed crushing mills keep facing losses as cottonseed price remains too high, and some mills have halted the purchase and have intention to force price down. Besides, cottonseed output this year is lower than the previous year, which supports cottonseed market. Considering that cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal are both paring gains, short-term cottonseed price is predicted to move with fluctuations.

Oils: 

Summary: U.S. soybeans were 87% harvested against 71% last year, and Brazilian farmers planted 42% of their soybean crops, and investors liquidated long positions ahead of the U.S. presidential elections. Hence, U.S. soybean futures fell in overnight trade. Crude oil prices rose 2.9% last night. And oils futures post wide gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil goes up 60-200 CNY/tonne and palm oil up 160-200 CNY/tonne. The trade is predicted to be tepid as buyers remain cautious due to volatile trends on Dalian.

China’s soybean crush fell 4.7% to 2.09 mln tonnes last week as some mills halted on swelling meal inventory. Add to that, there is demand from feed. Hence, soybean oil stocks declined 1.7% weekly to 1.25 mln tonnes. Besides, domestic rapeseed oil and palm oil stockpiles are also low. The oils market is predicted to extend an uptrend in fluctuations on bullish fundamentals and a lingering inflation expectation. Merely, there is a myriad of uncertain factors in the market at present. The resurgence of the COVID-19 in Europe triggers concerns over the economy, and participants are waiting for the results of U.S. presidential elections, so foreign market are volatile now. This will likely intensify fluctuations in the market, and participants need to remain cautious.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 7,470-7,770 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 60-200 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin traders 7470-7500; Rizhao traders 7640; Zhangjiagang traders 7740; and Guangzhou traders 7770). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6,670-6,760 CNY/tonne in coastal areas, mostly up 160-200 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6740, up 160; Rizhao 6760, up 170; Zhangjiagang traders 6680-6700, up 160; Guangzhou traders 6670, up 200; and Xiamen 6850, up 170). 

Rapeseed oil: U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Monday, and rapeseed oil futures stay below the previous close in spite of gains on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed oil prices go down 10 CNY to 10,170-10,310 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trading.

China’s soybean crush stays at a high level as huge soybean arrivals at ports offer bumper stocks. Besides, rapeseed oil sees a price spread with soybean oil and palm oil, which affects the consumption on rapeseed oil. But low domestic rapeseed imports due to tensions with Canada keep the crush at a low level, so that domestic mills are mainly carrying out rapeseed oil contracts. Currently, rapeseed oil stocks are only 257,000 tonnes in coastal regions. Besides, there is much more demand for oils in feed this year, so there is no pressure in oils supplies. Overall, short-term rapeseed oil market may fluctuate to adjust and will stay strong at the high level.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices keep steady with a further rise of 100 CNY/tonne in several regions. A few soy crushing mills have halted the operation due to bloat inventory of soybean meal. In this case, soybean crush declines by 4.7% to 2.09 mln tonnes. And soybean oil stocks continue falling to 1.25 mln tonnes with a decrease of 1.7% from a week earlier as the demand from feed industry goes better. Also, the inventory of rapeseed oil and palm oil stays at a low level. Crude oil rose by 2.9% on Monday. And oil futures post wide gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the cash market, soybean oil up by 60-200 CNY/tonne and palm oil up by 160-200 CNY/tonne. Thus, oil fundamentals remain good. The overall oils market will still move higher with fluctuations against the backdrop of global inflation expectations. On the other side, cottonseed crushing mills keep facing losses as cottonseed is still pricey, and many mills have halted the purchase. Consequently, the operation rate still stays at a low level, which will continue underpinning cottonseed oil market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed oil market will fluctuate at the high level.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.70)