Today (Nov 4), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Oilseeds:

Imported soybean: Uruguayan soybean is offered at 4,800-4,850 CNY/tonne at Shandong port today. The supply of imported soybeans is gradually decreasing, which is bullish to the market. But the influx of new domestic soybeans is entering the market, and the quality is also improving, so that purchasers turn to choose domestic soybeans. Overall, short-term imported soybean market is predicted to steady.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices fluctuate by 0.01-0.02 CNY/kg in some regions today. The delivery of cottonseed is still under impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in Xinjiang. Moreover, cottonseed crushing mills keep facing losses as cottonseed price remains too high, and some mills have halted the purchase and have intention to force price down. Besides, cottonseed output this year is lower than the previous year, which supports cottonseed market. Considering that cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal are both paring gains, short-term cottonseed price is predicted to move with fluctuations but toward an upward trend on the whole.

Oils: 

Summary: U.S. soybean harvests were 87% completed, lower than the market expectation of 91%, and Brazil was said to have been purchasing U.S. soybeans, so U.S. soybean futures climbed on Tuesday. And oils futures continue rising but with slight gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil go up 30-50 CNY/tonne. The trade is predicted to be still good upon low basis but tepid for high-level spots.

China’s domestic soybean oil market traded more than 90,000 tonnes on Monday. Besides, domestic soybean oil stocks have fallen 1.7% weekly to 1.25 mln tonnes due to strong demand in feed. Meanwhile, domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil stockpiles are also at low levels. Investors are increasing positions in major contracts in rapeseed oil futures. In addition, Malaysia’s Oct palm oil production fell 9.7% while exports rose 4.32%-5.58% month on month, according to SPPOMA, so its palm oil stocks could decline over 200,000 tonnes, which offers supports to Malaysian palm oil futures. The market expects that President Trump will win the election as he takes a lead in most swing states. If so, commodity markets will get bolstered after result comes out later today. Concerns over economy due to the resurgence of the coronavirus in Europe could lead to frequent fluctuations in the market, but overall, the oils market is predicted to keep an uptrend.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 7,730-7,810 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 30-50 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin traders 7730-7760; Rizhao traders 7730; Zhangjiagang traders 7810; and Guangzhou traders 7780). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6730-6830 CNY/tonne in coastal areas, mostly up 30-40 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6800, up 40; Rizhao 6830, up 30; Zhangjiagang traders 6750, up 30; Guangzhou traders 6730-6750, up 40; and Xiamen not available).

Rapeseed oil: U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Tuesday, and rapeseed oil futures open high and rise on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed oil prices go up 100-140 CNY to 10,360-10,430 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trading.

China’s lower rapeseed imports amid tensions with Canada keep its domestic crush at a low level, so rapeseed oil stocks also fall to 257,000 tonnes at present. Besides, its soybean oil and palm oil stockpiles are also not at high levels, while there is much more demand for oils in feed this year. Hence, there is no pressure in supply. Funds are bullish about the market due to a lingering global inflation expectation. Besides, the market expects that President Trump will win the election as he takes a lead in most swing states. If so, commodity markets will get bolstered after result comes out later today. Overall, rapeseed oil market is predicted to keep a strong trend, but there will be mainly rigid demand due to poor value-to-price ratio.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices keep steady today. It is said that Brazil is purchasing U.S. soybean, thereby US soybean futures rose on Tuesday. And oil futures post further gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the cash market, soybean oil and palm oil up by 30-50 CNY/tonne. Soybean oil stocks continue falling to 1.25 mln tonnes with a decrease of 1.7% from a week earlier as the demand from feed industry goes better. Also, the inventory of rapeseed oil and palm oil stays at a low level. Thus, oil fundamentals remain good. Besides, the polls so far show that Trump stands a good chance of winning the US presidential election, which is bullish for commodities and stocks markets. Moreover, the overall oils market will still move higher with fluctuations against the backdrop of global inflation expectations. On the other side, cottonseed crushing mills keep facing losses as cottonseed is still pricey, and many mills have halted the purchase. Consequently, the operation rate still stays at a low level, which will continue underpinning cottonseed oil market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed oil market will fluctuate at the high level.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.68)