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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 45, 2020)

2020-11-10 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

 

In the week ending November 6th, edible palm oil stocks in China total 369,700 tonnes at nationwide ports, down by 9.6% from 409,000 tonnes a week earlier; up 21,700 tonnes or 6.23% from 348,000 tonnes in the previous month; down 240,800 tonnes or 39.44% from 610,500 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 109,300 tonnes, an increase of 10,000 tonnes or 10.07% from 99,300 tonnes last week.

 

Palm oil stocks fall back again due to less arrival of vessels this week. But palm oil consumption slows down as weather gets colder. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein in November to be as high as 650,000 tonnes. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.

 

Region
/Port

Edible Palm Oil Stocks0'000 tonne

Industrial Palm Oil Stocks

W45

W44

Change

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

W45

W44

Change

Tianjin Port

9.63

9

0.63

48.81%

-3.57%

2.4

2.3

0.1

Hebei

0.4

0.6

-0.2

12.50%

80.00%

0.1

0.1

0

Shandong Port

1.5

2.29

-0.79

34.04%

-15.32%

1.26

1.53

-0.27

East China

6.65

7.5

-0.85

10.35%

-51.97%

4.7

3.4

1.3

Guangdong

14.76

16.03

-1.27

37.54%

-37.26%

2.13

2.17

-0.04

Guangxi

2.93

3.48

-0.55

-5.64%

-44.74%

0.34

0.43

-0.09

Fujian

1.1

2

-0.90

16.66%

-31.94%

0

0

0

Total

36.97

40.9

-3.93

28.36%

-33.36%

10.93

9.93

1

 

 

II. Goods Arrivals

 

China is projected to bring in 800,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week.

 

III. Margins and Shipments

 

Date

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/tonne

Duty Paid
(CNY/tonne)

DCE
(CNY/tonne)

Import Margin

11/2/2020

Jan, 2021

785

6305

6142

-163

Feb, 2021

765

6147

5764

-383

Mar, 2021

750

6028

5764

-264

Apr, 2021

735

5909

5764

-145

May, 2021

725

5829

5764

-65

Jun, 2021

715

5750

5478

-272

11/3/2020

Dec, 2020

825

6626

6358

-268

Jan, 2021

795

6388

6358

-30

Feb, 2021

770

6190

5940

-250

Mar, 2021

755

6071

5940

-131

Apr, 2021

735

5912

5940

28

11/4/2020

Dec, 2020

835

6716

6406

-310

Jan, 2021

805

6477

6406

-71

Feb, 2021

775

6239

5982

-257

Mar, 2021

760

6120

5982

-138

Apr, 2021

750

6040

5982

-58

11/5/2020

Jan, 2021

815

6512

6482

-30

Feb, 2021

790

6315

6078

-237

Mar, 2021

775

6197

6078

-119

Apr, 2021

755

6039

6078

39

11/6/2020

Dec, 2020

875

6956

6524

-432

Jan, 2021

840

6681

6524

-157

Feb, 2021

817.5

6504

6164

-340

Mar, 2021

797.5

6347

6164

-183

Apr, 2021

787.5

6269

6164

-105

Jun, 2021

760

6053

5842

-211