I. National stocks
In the week ending November 6th, edible palm oil stocks in China total 369,700 tonnes at nationwide ports, down by 9.6% from 409,000 tonnes a week earlier; up 21,700 tonnes or 6.23% from 348,000 tonnes in the previous month; down 240,800 tonnes or 39.44% from 610,500 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 109,300 tonnes, an increase of 10,000 tonnes or 10.07% from 99,300 tonnes last week.
Palm oil stocks fall back again due to less arrival of vessels this week. But palm oil consumption slows down as weather gets colder. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein in November to be as high as 650,000 tonnes. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.
Region |
Edible Palm Oil Stocks(0'000 tonne) |
Industrial Palm Oil Stocks |
||||||
W45 |
W44 |
Change |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
W45 |
W44 |
Change |
|
Tianjin Port |
9.63 |
9 |
0.63 |
48.81% |
-3.57% |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
Hebei |
0.4 |
0.6 |
-0.2 |
12.50% |
80.00% |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0 |
Shandong Port |
1.5 |
2.29 |
-0.79 |
34.04% |
-15.32% |
1.26 |
1.53 |
-0.27 |
East China |
6.65 |
7.5 |
-0.85 |
10.35% |
-51.97% |
4.7 |
3.4 |
1.3 |
Guangdong |
14.76 |
16.03 |
-1.27 |
37.54% |
-37.26% |
2.13 |
2.17 |
-0.04 |
Guangxi |
2.93 |
3.48 |
-0.55 |
-5.64% |
-44.74% |
0.34 |
0.43 |
-0.09 |
Fujian |
1.1 |
2 |
-0.90 |
16.66% |
-31.94% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total: |
36.97 |
40.9 |
-3.93 |
28.36% |
-33.36% |
10.93 |
9.93 |
1 |
II. Goods Arrivals
China is projected to bring in 800,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week.
III. Margins and Shipments
Date |
Sailing Schedule |
CNF |
Duty Paid |
DCE |
Import Margin |
11/2/2020 |
Jan, 2021 |
785 |
6305 |
6142 |
-163 |
Feb, 2021 |
765 |
6147 |
5764 |
-383 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
750 |
6028 |
5764 |
-264 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
735 |
5909 |
5764 |
-145 |
|
May, 2021 |
725 |
5829 |
5764 |
-65 |
|
Jun, 2021 |
715 |
5750 |
5478 |
-272 |
|
11/3/2020 |
Dec, 2020 |
825 |
6626 |
6358 |
-268 |
Jan, 2021 |
795 |
6388 |
6358 |
-30 |
|
Feb, 2021 |
770 |
6190 |
5940 |
-250 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
755 |
6071 |
5940 |
-131 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
735 |
5912 |
5940 |
28 |
|
11/4/2020 |
Dec, 2020 |
835 |
6716 |
6406 |
-310 |
Jan, 2021 |
805 |
6477 |
6406 |
-71 |
|
Feb, 2021 |
775 |
6239 |
5982 |
-257 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
760 |
6120 |
5982 |
-138 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
750 |
6040 |
5982 |
-58 |
|
11/5/2020 |
Jan, 2021 |
815 |
6512 |
6482 |
-30 |
Feb, 2021 |
790 |
6315 |
6078 |
-237 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
775 |
6197 |
6078 |
-119 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
755 |
6039 |
6078 |
39 |
|
11/6/2020 |
Dec, 2020 |
875 |
6956 |
6524 |
-432 |
Jan, 2021 |
840 |
6681 |
6524 |
-157 |
|
Feb, 2021 |
817.5 |
6504 |
6164 |
-340 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
797.5 |
6347 |
6164 |
-183 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
787.5 |
6269 |
6164 |
-105 |
|
Jun, 2021 |
760 |
6053 |
5842 |
-211 |