Today (Nov 10), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean rose on Monday on strong export demand and as the market broadly expected that the USDA would trim its estimates for U.S. soybean yields and inventories in its November supply/demand report on Tuesday. Meal futures continue declining on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices decline by 10-40 CNY to 3,140-3,260 CNY/tonne in coastal region in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3260, Shandong 3200-3250, Jiangsu 3160-3170, Dongguan 3120-3140, and Guangxi 3200-3240.)

Net crush margins on Dalian for new Brazilian soybeans of March-May shipments hit 330-370 CNY/tonne, which triggers broad hedge and puts squeeze on meal futures. Soybean crush remains at a high level in China now, while soybean meal has been in thin trade for days as aquaculture is gradually into slack season. Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations are expected to see a detente as Joe Biden is projected to be the winner of the presidential election, so that Chinese yuan has been strengthening recently and soybean import cost thus goes lower. These are dragging down meal prices. But the demand for soybean meal has been improving in the poultry and livestock sectors, especially in hog breeding, so domestic soybean meal stocks have been reducing even under high soybean crush. In the week as of Nov 6, China’s soybean meal stocks fell further by 1.5% to 840,000 tonnes in coastal regions. The bullish demand prospect is lending support to meal prices. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will follow futures to decline and adjust and will hopefully see rises after that. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: Pfizer Inc said their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective at preventing COVID-19, which could be available by the end of 2020. Stock market and U.S. soybean futures rose overnight on the news. Rapeseed meal futures fall back with low opens today on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 20-30 CNY/tonne at 2,430-2,550 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Soybean crush remains high amid huge imports, and rapeseed meal trading becomes light as aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, depressing rapeseed meal price. Only three rapeseed crushing mills operate normally at the moment, leading to a tight supply in rapeseed meal. In this case, oil mills limit the orders and truck loading is delayed. Except that, oil mills are in fast progress in soybean meal sales and urge the deliveries. Accordingly, soybean meal stocks keep falling despite high operating rate. Oil plants have strong intention to prop up price. These may limit the downside potential of rapeseed meal price. And short-term market will move with fluctuations tracking futures.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,900-10,200 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,300 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne. Aquaculture is entering into the slack season as the weather gets cool, so that its demand for fishmeal is reducing. This slashes the appetite of feed companies, which is bearish to domestic fishmeal market. Meanwhile, Peru’s fishing quota for the second season in north central waters is adding bearish sentiment to domestic market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight decline in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 59,220 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,600 tonnes, Shanghai 29,100 tonnes, Tianjin 580 tonnes, Dalian 5,050 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,100 tonnes and 3,650 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Nov/Dec shipments are quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,610 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices decrease by 50 CNY/tonne in some regions today. Meal futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange continue falling today, and spot soybean meal drops by 10-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Driven by considerable crush margins of Brazilian new soybean, soybean crush in China maintains a high level amid huge imports. But aquaculture is gradually entering into a slack season, so soybean meal trading is light. Joe Biden’s election as U.S. president is favorable for a detente in Sino-US relations, which leads Chinese Yuan to sharply go up, thereby reducing the cost of importing soybean. These have together weighed down meal price. Moreover, the operating rate in crushing mills will keep recovering, so the supply of cottonseed meal is likely to increase, which is bearish for cottonseed meal market. Nevertheless, the high cost still offers support to its market. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is projected to fall back in the near term but still fluctuate to stay strong on the whole.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.59)