Today (Nov 11), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The USDA lowered U.S. soybean ending stocks down by 100 mln bushels to 190 mln, which was well below the market forecast of 239 mln bushels. U.S. soybean futures closed 35.5 cents higher at 1146 cents on Tuesday on the bullish report and strong export demand, as well as the upbeat sentiment over a potential COVID-19 vaccine by Pfizer. Meal futures open higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices rise by 30-70 CNY to 3,180-3,300 CNY/tonne in coastal region in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3300, Shandong 3250-3280, Jiangsu 3200-3240, Dongguan 3180-3210, and Guangxi 3250-3280.)

Crush margins for U.S. soybean of Dec-Feb shipments are at a loss along with a rise in import cost. In addition, there is a sharp recovery in feed production in China’s hog sector. China’s October hog feed production totals 9.34 mln tonnes, a month-on-month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 64% and equivalent to 95% of the production in October 2017, according to a report by China Feed Industry Association. China’s soybean meal stocks fell further by 1.5% weekly to 840,000 tonnes in coastal regions even under high soybean crush. A positive demand outlook is now supporting meal prices. But U.S.-China relations will likely see a thaw under Joe Biden’s administration, so Chinese yuan has sharply risen to 6.6 recently. And Chinese millers continue keeping soybean crush at a high level, which may limit rises in meal prices. Overall, soybean meal market posts gains today after a round of declines, but it will see frequent fluctuations alongside. Buyers are suggested to keep appropriate stocks and remain cautious in chasing after higher prices.

Imported rapeseed meal: USDA report on Tuesday revised the new soybean stocks estimate down by 100 million bushels to 190 million bushels, sharply lower than market-expected 239 million bushels. This report was bullish for market. And the demand for US soybean export is robust. Besides, Pfizer Inc’s breakthrough in coronavirus vaccine brings market optimism. Driven by these factors, U.S. soybean futures skyrocketed by 35.5 cents to 1,146 cents. Meal futures in China extend the rally after opening high. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 10-30 CNY/tonne at 2,450-2,560 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. The supply of rapeseed meal is tightening, so oil mills limit the orders and truck loading is delayed. Soybean meal stocks keep falling and down by 1.5% to 840,000 tonnes, which leads the overall market to stay strong. These have boosted rapeseed meal market to get back to the rally. On the other hand, Joe Biden’s election as U.S. president is favorable for a detente in Sino-US relations, causing Chinese Yuan against USD to rise above 6.6. Soybean crush remains high amid huge imports, and aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, depressing rapeseed meal price. It is predicted that rapeseed meal price may fluctuate to go up. Buyers should maintain proper inventory on the dips and be cautious in chasing up prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,900-10,100 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne. Aquaculture is entering into the slack season as the weather gets cool, so that its demand for fishmeal is reducing. This slashes the appetite of feed companies, which is bearish to domestic fishmeal market. Meanwhile, Peru’s fishing quota for the second season in north central waters is adding bearish sentiment to domestic market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight decline in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 59,520 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,750 tonnes, Shanghai 29,700 tonnes, Tianjin 550 tonnes, Dalian 5,130 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,150 tonnes and 3,750 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Nov/Dec shipments are quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,610 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices decrease by 20-100 CNY/tonne in some regions today. Joe Biden’s election as U.S. president is favorable for a detente in Sino-US relations, causing Chinese Yuan against USD to rise above 6.6. Soybean crush in China maintains a super high level amid huge imports, which may limit price rises of meals. Moreover, the operating rate in crushing mills will keep recovering and cottonseed meal trading in market is tepid, so the supply of cottonseed meal is likely to increase, which is bearish for cottonseed meal market. But U.S. soybean futures soared by 35.5 cents to 1,146 cents on Tuesday. Meal futures also jump higher after opening high today on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal increases by 30-70 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Nevertheless, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is projected to ease off in the near term but still fluctuate to stay strong on the whole.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.61)