Today (Nov 12), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued rising on Wednesday on the bullish monthly supply and demand report by the USDA, but meal futures open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices decline by 10-30 CNY to 3,170-3,270 CNY/tonne in coastal region in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3270, Shandong 3225-3290, Jiangsu 3180-3200, Dongguan 3170-3190, and Guangxi 3240-3280.)

China’s soybean crush remains at a high level due to huge soybean supplies, whilst soybean meal market has been thin trade as aquaculture is gradually entering into the slack season, and some mills have been bothered by swelling meal inventories. Besides, U.S.-China relations will likely see a thaw under Joe Biden’s administration. And domestic investors are actively in buying oils and selling meals to take profits, which is also bearish to meal prices. However, crush margins for U.S. soybean of Dec-Feb shipments are at a loss along with a rise in import cost. In addition, there is a sharp recovery in feed production in China’s hog sector. Hence, soybean meal stocks have been falling even under high soybean crush, and the market is bullish about the demand outlook. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to keep range-bound but also to keep a strengthening trend in fluctuation.

Imported rapeseed meal: US soybean futures further rose on Wednesday. Rapeseed meal futures grow but move around the previous closing today on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles partly down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,440-2,560 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Soybean crush remains high amid huge imports, and aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, so rapeseed meal trading is light these days. Besides, Joe Biden’s election as U.S. president is favorable for a detente in Sino-US relations, causing Chinese Yuan to jump higher. This is bearish for meal price in China. But rapeseed meal is in tight supply, so oil mills limit the orders and truck loading is delayed. And oil plants tend to raise price as soybean meal stocks keep falling, which also bolsters meal price. It is predicted that rapeseed meal price may fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term but still keep strengthening overall.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,100 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,700 CNY/tonne, down 200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,800-11,200 CNY/tonne, down 200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,300-11,700 CNY/tonne, down 200 CNY/tonne. Aquaculture is entering into the slack season as the weather gets cool, so that its demand for fishmeal is reducing. This slashes the appetite of feed companies, and some traders tend to sell at current prices. However, recent political chaos in Peru could cast doubts on fishing activities in its north central waters, so some Chinese traders are still awaiting. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight decline in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 59,860 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,850 tonnes, Shanghai 29,900 tonnes, Tianjin 530 tonnes, Dalian 5,160 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,180 tonnes and 3,800 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Nov/Dec shipments are quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,610 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices further decrease by 50-100 CNY/tonne in some regions today. The operating rate in soybean crushing mills remains high amid ample supply. But soybean meal trading is light as aquaculture has been in an off season. Hence, some oil mills halt the operation due to bulging inventories. Meal futures edge down after low opens today on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal decreases by 10-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Besides, Joe Biden’s election as U.S. president is favorable for a detente in Sino-US relations. And meal price in China is dampened by an arbitrage from oils buying and meals selling. Moreover, the operating rate in cottonseed crushing mills will keep recovering and cottonseed meal trading in market is tepid, so the supply of cottonseed meal is likely to increase, which is bearish for cottonseed meal market. But U.S. soybean futures soared by 35.5 cents to 1,146 cents on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is projected to mover with fluctuations in the near term but still stay strong on the whole.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.62)