Today (Nov 16), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose last Friday on strong export demand, tight supplies and the bullish USDA monthly report, as well as dry weather in southern Brazil. But meal futures continue falling on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today on active arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Spot soybean meal prices decline by 20-40 CNY to 3,080-3,220 CNY/tonne in coastal region in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3220, Shandong 3140-3220, Jiangsu 3120-3160, Dongguan 3080-3120, and Guangxi 3120-3200.)

U.S. democratic candidate Joe Biden has won the presidential election, which will make for a detente in relations between China and the US. And China’s soybean arrivals at ports have been huge as the country is still fulfilling the phase-one trade deal, and soybeans are in adequate supplies. Moreover, the demand for oils is good. Hence, domestic soybean crush remains at a high level. Meanwhile, domestic aquaculture is gradually entering into the slack season. Therefore, domestic soybean meal stocks picked up to 870,000 tonnes in coastal regions last week, a weekly rise of 3.4%, and some mills have to suspended production due to swelling meal inventories. However, crush margins for imported soybeans are at a loss in China now as import cost has been lifted by strong U.S. soybean prices. Moreover, the demand for soybean meal has been decent due to a recovery in the breeding sector, especially in hog breeding. Hence, domestic millers still have strong sentiment in propping up prices, which will help limit the decline in soybean meal prices. In the short term, soybean meal prices will follow futures to fluctuate to decline and adjust. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Friday on bullish USDA report, dryness in South Brazil as well as shorter supply amid strong export demand. But meal futures in China continue falling today on profit taking from oils buying. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 10-30 CNY/tonne at 2,420-2,500 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Soybean crush remains high amid huge imports and aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, depressing rapeseed meal price. But rapeseed meal is in tight supply and its stockpile down to zero in South China, so oil mills limit the sales and truck loading is delayed. And oil plants tend to raise price as soybean meal stocks keep falling, which may limit declines. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price may fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can stay on the sideline.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,800-11,200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,300-11,600 CNY/tonne. Domestic aquaculture is entering into the slack season as the weather gets cool, so that its demand for fishmeal is decreasing and feed companies are not purchasing at a brisk pace. Domestic port fishmeal stockpiles keep increasing, and some traders tend to sell at current prices. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight decline in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 61,500 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,720 tonnes, Shanghai 30,560 tonnes, Tianjin 520 tonnes, Dalian 5,500 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,150 tonnes and 3,800 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Nov/Dec shipments are quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,610 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices further decrease by 50-100 CNY/tonne in some regions today. U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Friday on bullish USDA report, dryness in South Brazil as well as shorter supply amid strong export demand. An expected purchase of soybean oil supports oils to stage strong performance, and investors buy actively to take an arbitrage. Meal futures continue falling today on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal slips by 20-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Joe Biden’s election as U.S. president is favorable for a detente in relations between US and China. Besides, the operating rate in soybean crushing mills remains high amid ample supply. But soybean meal trading is light as aquaculture has entered an off season. These factors are bearish for domestic meal price. Moreover, the operating rate in cottonseed crushing mills will keep recovering and cottonseed meal trading in market is tepid, so the supply of cottonseed meal is likely to increase, which is bearish for cottonseed meal market. Nevertheless, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal market is projected to move with fluctuations following soybean meal.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.60)