I. National stocks
In the week ending November 13th, edible palm oil stocks in China total 391,100 tonnes at nationwide ports, up by 5.8% from 369,700 tonnes a week earlier; down 31,300 tonnes or 7.41% from 422,400 tonnes in the previous month; down 259,700 tonnes or 39.9% from 650,800 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 111,400 tonnes, an increase of 2,100 tonnes or 1.9% from 109,300 tonnes last week.
Palm oil stocks rise this week due to more arrival of vessels and slack demand. And palm oil consumption slows down as weather gets colder. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein in November to be as high as 650,000 tonnes. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.
Region |
Edible Palm Oil Stocks(0'000 tonne) |
Industrial Palm Oil Stocks |
||||||
W46 |
W45 |
Change |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
W46 |
W45 |
Change |
|
Tianjin Port |
9.97 |
9.63 |
0.34 |
1.94% |
81.27% |
2.2 |
2.4 |
-0.2 |
Hebei |
0.3 |
0.4 |
-0.1 |
-40.00% |
-65.91% |
0 |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
Shandong Port |
1.71 |
1.5 |
0.21 |
-56.71% |
-64.52% |
1.01 |
1.26 |
-0.25 |
East China |
8.08 |
6.65 |
1.43 |
-13.58% |
-63.69% |
5.5 |
4.7 |
0.8 |
Guangdong |
16.03 |
14.76 |
1.27 |
16.49% |
-39.05% |
2.08 |
2.13 |
-0.05 |
Guangxi |
2.12 |
2.93 |
-0.81 |
11.57% |
11.57% |
0.35 |
0.34 |
0.01 |
Fujian |
0.9 |
1.1 |
-0.20 |
-70.00% |
-73.52% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total: |
39.11 |
36.97 |
2.14 |
-7.41% |
-39.90% |
11.14 |
10.93 |
0.21 |
II. Goods Arrivals
China is projected to bring in 800,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week.
III. Margins and Shipments
Date |
Sailing Schedule |
CFR |
Duty Paid |
DCE |
Import Margin |
11/9/2020 |
Jan, 2021 |
840 |
6634 |
6384 |
-250 |
Feb, 2021 |
820 |
6478 |
6074 |
-404 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
800 |
6322 |
6074 |
-248 |
|
11/10/2020 |
Jan, 2021 |
837.5 |
6642 |
6450 |
-192 |
Feb, 2021 |
817.5 |
6485 |
6118 |
-367 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
797.5 |
6328 |
6118 |
-210 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
785 |
6231 |
6118 |
-113 |
|
11/11/2020 |
Dec, 2020 |
890 |
7042 |
6644 |
-398 |
Jan, 2021 |
855 |
6768 |
6644 |
-124 |
|
Feb, 2021 |
840 |
6651 |
6298 |
-353 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
820 |
6495 |
6298 |
-197 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
800 |
6338 |
6298 |
-40 |
|
11/12/2020 |
Dec, 2020 |
885 |
7027 |
6628 |
-399 |
Jan, 2021 |
865 |
6870 |
6628 |
-242 |
|
Feb, 2021 |
850 |
6753 |
6300 |
-453 |
|
Mar, 2021 |
840 |
6674 |
6300 |
-374 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
820 |
6517 |
6300 |
-217 |
|
May, 2021 |
795 |
6321 |
6300 |
-21 |
|
11/13/2020 |
Jan, 2021 |
855 |
6795 |
6670 |
-125 |
Apr, 2021 |
810 |
6442 |
6494 |
52 |