Today (Nov 17), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose on Monday on brisk demand and market enthusiasm that U.S. drugmaker Moderna’s experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19. But meal futures continue falling on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices decline by 20-40 CNY to 3,050-3,190 CNY/tonne in coastal region in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3190, Shandong 3130-3180, Jiangsu 3090-3110, Dongguan 3050-3100, and Guangxi 3100-3160.)

Chinese ports are seeing numerous soybean vessels from the United States as the country is fulfilling the trade deal, so that domestic soybean market is in adequate supplies. Meanwhile, Chinese crushers are keeping high soybean crush to satisfy the demand for soybean oil whose stocks have been declining. Unluckily, state reserves do not have demand for soybeans meal, and domestic aquaculture is gradually entering into the slack season; hence, soybean meal stocks rose 3.4% weekly to 870,000 tonnes as of Nov 13, and some millers have to quicken up deliveries. These are constraining meal prices. However, soybean import cost has been lifted by strong U.S. soybean performance, so crush margins for imported soybeans have been at a loss. Moreover, the demand for soybean meal has been decent due to a recovery in the breeding sector, especially in hog breeding. Hence, domestic millers still have strong sentiment in propping up prices, which will help limit the decline in soybean meal prices. In the short term, soybean meal prices will follow futures to fluctuate to decline and adjust. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures finished higher on Monday on robust demand and optimism in market as Moderna Inc said its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19. But meal futures in China continue falling today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,410-2,460 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Soybean is in ample supply amid growing arrivals at ports, and the demand for oils is robust due to a purchase by state reserve. In this case, soybean crush remains high. However, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season. Consequently, soybean meal inventories are up 3% to 870,000 tonnes. And rapeseed meal pellets stocks also increase by 58% to 97,000 tonnes. These have dragged down rapeseed meal price. In addition, for rapeseed crush stays at a low level amid tensions between Canada and China, rapeseed meal is in tight supply, and its stockpile remains at zero in South China. This may limit declines. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term rapeseed meal price is predicted to fluctuate at a narrow range.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a partial decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-11,000 CNY/tonne, down 100-200; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,200-11,400 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY/tonne. Domestic aquaculture is entering into the slack season as the weather gets cool, so that its demand for fishmeal is decreasing and feed companies are not purchasing at a brisk pace. And fishmeal prices decline notably in foreign markets, so that domestic traders have slightly cut prices to attract purchases. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight decline in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 62,500 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,950 tonnes, Shanghai 30,760 tonnes, Tianjin 560 tonnes, Dalian 5,850 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,200 tonnes and 3,950 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Nov/Dec shipments are quoted lower by 100 USD at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Nov 15 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 172,892 tonnes, taking up 6.22% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 43, 000 tonnes per day and 2,607,108 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices further decrease by 50-100 CNY/tonne in some regions today. U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Monday on robust demand and optimism in market as Moderna Inc said its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19. But meal futures continue falling today on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal slips by 10-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. US soybean arrivals are huge in quantity as China fulfills Phase-1 trade deal. In this case, soybean crush maintains the high level amid sufficient supply. Besides, aquaculture has entered an off season, curbing meal price. Likewise, cottonseed meal trading is tepid. All these factors are bearish for cottonseed meal market. Nevertheless, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal market is projected to move with fluctuations following soybean meal.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.58)