Today (Nov 18), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures surged to a four-year high on Tuesday, bolstered by strong U.S. soybean exports, especially as China’s demand for U.S. soybeans continued tightening global soybean stockpiles, and on sustained dryness in some portions of South America as La Nina continued. Meal futures open higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up by 40-60 CNY to 3,100-3,250 CNY/tonne in coastal region in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3250, Shandong 3160-3200, Jiangsu 3110-3130, Dongguan 3100-3160, and Guangxi 3180-3200.)  

A strong outlook in U.S. soybean prices is lifting the import cost. China’s hog sector is in a recovery now. Nationwide sow stocks were 39.5 mln heads in October, a 13th straight month rise and a 32% increase from a year earlier; and hog stocks were 387 mln heads in October, a 9th straight month rise and a 27% increase from a year earlier. This brightens the demand prospect for soybean meal and supports its prices. However, China’s soybean crush remains at a high level due to adequate soybean supplies, and investors are active in making arbitrage in buying oils and selling meals. Moreover, domestic aquaculture is fading due to cooler weather. So in the week as of Nov 13^th, China’s soybean meal stocks rose 3.4% weekly to 870,000 tonnes, and some millers have to quicken up deliveries now. Overall, short-term soybean meal will follow futures to rebound moderately, possibly with frequent fluctuations. Buyers are suggested to keep appropriate stocks, but not to chase after excessively high prices.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed higher and set a record four-year high on Tuesday on strong export demand. Meal futures in China also rise today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 10 CNY/tonne at 2,430-2,460 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. For rapeseed crush stays at a low level amid tensions between Canada and China, rapeseed meal is in tight supply, which may boost rapeseed meal price. However, soybean is in ample supply amid growing arrivals at ports, so soybean crush in China maintains the high level. Moreover, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, leading to a rally in soybean meal stocks. This may limit price rises of rapeseed meal. Consequently, rapeseed meal market is projected to fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers can make appropriate replenishment upon low price and should be cautious in chasing up price.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-11,000 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,200-11,400 CNY/tonne. Domestic aquaculture is entering into the slack season as the weather gets cool, so that its demand for fishmeal is decreasing and feed companies are not purchasing at a brisk pace. In addition, fish catches are smooth in Peru now, so that domestic traders have weaker sentiment in propping up prices. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight decline in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 63,500 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,250 tonnes, Shanghai 30,960 tonnes, Tianjin 580 tonnes, Dalian 6,400 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,350 tonnes and 4,200 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted steadily at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Nov 16 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 222,478 tonnes, taking up 8% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 44, 000 tonnes per day and 2,557,522 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices further decrease by 20-100 CNY/tonne in some regions today. The demand for oils remains good, so investors take profit from oils buying and meals selling. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season. Soybean meal stocks last week in coastal regions rallied to 870,000 tonnes, an increase of 3.4% from a week earlier. Some oil plants urge the deliveries, which curbs meal price. And cottonseed meal trading is tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. U.S. soybean futures surged on Tuesday, recording a four-year high. Meal futures extend the opening gains today on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal rises by 10-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Nevertheless, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market will fall not too much. Buyers can keep eyes on the trend of soybean meal. If soybean meal rebounds consecutively, cottonseed meal may be boosted.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.56)