Today (Nov 20), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued rising on Thursday on an uncertain soybean production prospect under dryness in South America and on tightening U.S. soybean stockpiles. Meal futures post modest gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 10-20 CNY to 3,110-3,230 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3230, Shandong 3160-3220, Jiangsu 3110-3150, Dongguan 3100-3190, and Guangxi 3170-3200.)

The cost of importing soybeans keep rising as U.S. soybean futures move higher, so that crush margins for Dec-Feb shipments are at a loss on Dalian. Besides, soybean meal holds a bright demand outlook due to brisk feed consumption thanks to a sustained recovery in hog herd. Domestic crushers are propping up meal prices, which is bullish to the market. However, Chinese crushers are maintaining high soybean crush to guarantee oils supply, as soybean stocks are huge in China now and oils are in strong performance. Moreover, domestic aquaculture is fading as the weather gets cool. Hence, the consumption of soybean meal has been notably slower recently, and some  millers have to liquidate their swelling stocks, which is curbing rises in meal prices. Overall, short-term soybean meal stocks follow futures to keep range-bound.

Imported rapeseed meal: There still exists uncertainty in soybean production in South America due to prolonged dryness, triggering market worries. And U.S. soybean stocks are tightening. In this case, U.S. soybean futures closed up on Thursday. Meal futures in China also keep rising today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 20-60 CNY/tonne at 2,480-2,500 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. For rapeseed crush stays at a low level amid tensions between Canada and China, rapeseed meal is in tight supply, which may boost rapeseed meal price. However, soybean is in ample supply amid huge arrivals at ports, so soybean crush maintains the high level. Additionally, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, leading to a rally in soybean meal stocks. Soybean meal inventory increases by 3% to 870,000 tonnes. This may limit price rises of rapeseed meal. Consequently, rapeseed meal market is projected to fluctuate to stay strong on the whole.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-11,000 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,200-11,400 CNY/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies are not busy making purchases. In addition, fish catches are smooth in Peru now, so that domestic traders have weaker sentiment in propping up prices. But there is no pressure in stocks at domestic ports, and Peruvian exporters have presolf over fifty percent, so that traders are unwilling to sell at low rates. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 64,800 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,660 tonnes, Shanghai 31,780 tonnes, Tianjin 580 tonnes, Dalian 6,800 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,400 tonnes and 4,300 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted steadily at 1,280 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices further decrease by 30 CNY/tonne in several regions today. The demand for oils remains good, and oils market is strong. To ensure oil supply, the operation rate in crushing mills maintains a high level. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season. Soybean meal consumption markedly slows down in recent days, and some oil plants even halt the production due to bloated inventory, which curbs meal price. And cottonseed meal trading is tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. But U.S. soybean futures rose on Thursday. Meal futures post a modest growth on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal is up 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Furthermore, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market will fall not too much. Buyers can keep eyes on the trend of soybean meal. If soybean meal rebounds consecutively, cottonseed meal market will also be buoyed.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.58)