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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 47, 2020)

2020-11-24 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

 

In the week ending November 20th, edible palm oil stocks in China total 433,700 tonnes at nationwide ports, up by 10.89% from 391,100 tonnes a week earlier; up 47,200 tonnes or 12.2% from 386,500 tonnes in the previous month; down 244,900 tonnes or 36.09% from 678,600 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 122,300 tonnes, an increase of 10,900 tonnes or 9.8% from 111,400 tonnes last week.

 

Palm oil stocks rise this week due to more vessels arrivals and weaker demand. And palm oil consumption slows down as weather gets colder. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein in November to be as high as 650,000 tonnes. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.

 

Region
/Port

Edible Palm Oil Stocks0'000 tonne

Industrial Palm Oil Stocks

W47

W46

Change

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

W47

W46

Change

Tianjin Port

8.85

9.97

-1.12

-6.35%

38.28%

2.2

2.2

0

Hebei

0.82

0.3

0.52

-8.89%

17.14%

0.13

0

0.13

Shandong Port

1.31

1.71

-0.4

-58.41%

-76.01%

0.93

1.01

-0.08

East China

13.4

8.08

5.37

72.23%

-49.53%

6.2

5.5

0.7

Guangdong

16.17

16.03

0.14

23.62%

-34.40%

2.33

2.08

0.25

Guangxi

2.52

2.12

0.4

36.96%

62.58%

0.44

0.35

0.09

Fujian

0.3

0.9

-0.6

-87.76%

-88.23%

0

0

0

Total

43.37

39.11

4.26

12.21%

-36.09%

12.23

11.14

1.09

 

 

II. Goods Arrivals

 

China is projected to bring in 800,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week.

 

III. Margins and Shipments

 

Date

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/tonne

Duty Paid
(CNY/tonne)

DCE
(CNY/tonne)

Import Margin

11/16/2020

Jan, 2021

885

6987

6730

-257

Feb, 2021

855

6753

6330

-423

Mar, 2021

835

6596

6330

-266

Apr, 2021

812.5

6421

6330

-91

11/17/2020

Feb, 2021

870

6854

6482

-372

Mar, 2021

850

6699

6482

-217

Apr, 2021

825

6504

6482

-22

11/18/2020

Dec, 2020

895

7028

6814

-214

Jan, 2021

880

6932

6814

-118

Feb, 2021

860

6757

6436

-321

Mar, 2021

845

6640

6436

-204

Apr, 2021

820

6446

6436

-10

11/19/2020

Feb, 2021

890

7011

6594

-417

Mar, 2021

870

6855

6594

-261

Apr, 2021

850

6699

6594

-105

11/20/2020

Feb, 2021

890

6978

6448

-530

Mar, 2021

870

6822

6448

-374

Apr, 2021

850

6666

6448

-218

Aug, 2021

785

6199

6168

-31