Today (Nov 25), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures edged lower on Tuesday on profit taking, and meal futures fluctuate to tad down on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-20 CNY to 3,100-3,230 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3230, Shandong 3150-3230, Jiangsu 3100-3160, Dongguan 3100-3120, and Guangxi 3170-3190.)

Huge soybean arrivals and adequate soybean supplies keep the crush high in China, while soybean meal has been in thin trade and slow delivery as aquaculture is gradually into the slack season; hence, soybean meal stocks keep growing, with a weekly increase of 15% to 1 mln tonnes in coastal regions in the week as of Nov 20, and some mills have to suspend production due to swelling inventories. This is curbing meal prices. However, soybean net crush margins for Dec-Feb are at a loss on Dalian due to continuously rising import cost, so Chinese importers canceled several U.S. soybean vessels for Nov-Jan shipments last week, and some mills have make a plan for downtime later this month. Mills have strong sentiment in propping up prices, which is supporting meal market. In the short run, soybean meal market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate frequently, but the volatility will not be wild.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures finished lower on Tuesday on profit taking by a wave of selling. Meal futures in China fall back slightly today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles partly down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,470-2,550 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. China is still purchasing U.S. soybean so as to fulfill Phase 1 trade deal, leading to huge arrival at domestic ports. Consequently, soybean crush maintains a high level. Besides, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, so soybean meal stocks continue rallying. And rapeseed meal is in ample supply in Guangdong region, which has dragged down rapeseed meal price. Additionally, rapeseed crush stays at a low level due to limited availability of rapeseed amid tensions between Canada and China, which will likely curb its declines. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term rapeseed meal market is projected to fluctuate at a narrow range.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,700-11,000 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,200-11,400 CNY/tonne. Currently, domestic port traders have no pressure in stocks so that they are not quite willing to sell at low rate. Moreover, domestic holders tend to wait and some have slightly raised prices, for Peruvian exporters have presold over half and have hiked their offer. Merely, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies are not busy making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 7,120 tonnes, Tianjin 750 tonnes, Shanghai 31,800 tonnes, Huangpu 65,300 tonnes, Fuzhou 13,580 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,600 tonnes and 4,500 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted steadily at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Nov 23 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 450,862 tonnes, taking up 16.22% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 38, 000 tonnes per day and 2,329,138 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a decrease of 30 CNY/tonne in individual regions today. U.S. soybean futures edged down on Tuesday due to profit taking before Thanksgiving Day. Meal futures swing to lower slightly today on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal steadily fluctuates by 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Soybean crush maintains a high level amid huge imports. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season, so soybean meal trading goes lighter. As of now, soybean meal stocks in coastal regions increase by 15% to 1 mln tonnes. Some oil plants even halt the production due to bloated inventory, curbing meal price. And cottonseed meal trading is also tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market will mainly fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.57)