Today (Nov 26), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures further sank on Wednesday on weather forecast for improving rainfall in Argentina and as Chinese importers were mulling on canceling U.S. soybean contracts for Dec-Jan shipment due to falling crush margins. Meal futures fractionally fluctuate on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-20 CNY to 3,090-3,220 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade, with some low-level replenishment. (Tianjin 3220, Shandong 3150-3220, Jiangsu 3090-3160, Dongguan 3090-3110, and Guangxi 3160-3180.)

Chinese crushers keep soybean processing high amid adequate feedstock supply, but soybean meal market is in lackluster trade and slow delivery as aquaculture is seasonally fading. In the week as of Nov 20, soybean meal stockpiles rose 15% to 1 mln tonnes in littoral China, and some crushers halt production under ballooning inventories. However, Chinese soybean importers are canceling some cargoes as net crush margins for Dec-Feb shipment on Dalian have been collapsing due to continuously climbing import cost, and some crushers have made a plan for downtime later this month. Moreover, feed demand shows a positive prospect now with a sustaining recovery in the pig sector. Besides, news on coronavirus vaccines keeps coming into the market, in addition to a global inflation expectation. These are all supporting meal market. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate frequently, but the volatility will not be wild.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures and meal futures in China continue falling today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 20-30 CNY/tonne at 2,450-2,500 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. China is still purchasing U.S. soybean so as to fulfill Phase 1 trade deal, leading to huge arrival at domestic ports. Consequently, soybean crush maintains a high level. Besides, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, so the delivery of soybean meal slows recently, leading to an increase in its stocks. And rapeseed meal is in ample supply in Guangdong region, which has dragged down rapeseed meal price. Additionally, rapeseed crush stays at a low level due to limited availability of rapeseed amid tensions between Canada and China, which will likely curb its declines. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal market will fluctuate frequently tracking futures.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are slightly higher today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,900-10,100 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,300-10,600 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,800-11,000 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,300-11,400 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY/tonne. Peruvian sellers have hiked their offers as they completed presales of more than a half, and Chinese traders have also tentatively raised prices today as there is no pressure in stock. Merely, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies are not busy making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 7,360 tonnes, Tianjin 780 tonnes, Shanghai 31,900 tonnes, Huangpu 65,500 tonnes, Fuzhou 13,680 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,700 tonnes and 4,600 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted higher by 20 USD at 1,330 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,550 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Nov 24 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 484,568 tonnes, taking up 17.43% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 37, 000 tonnes per day and 2,295,432 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable today. U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Wednesday on improved rainfall in Argentina. Soybean crush maintains a high level amid huge imports. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season, so soybean meal trading goes lighter and deliveries also slow. As of now, soybean meal stocks in coastal regions increase by 15% to 1 mln tonnes. Some oil plants even halt the production due to bloated inventory, curbing meal price. And cottonseed meal trading also becomes tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market will mainly fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.58)