According to Cofeed, on the week as of Nov 27, details of soybean stocks and soybean meal stocks and outstanding contracts in coastal regions are as follows:

Soybean: Imported soybean stocks are further lower this week due to fewer cargoes into the factory. In the week as of Nov 27, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,142,900 tonnes, down 531,600 tonnes by 9.37% from 5,674,500 tonnes last week and up by 72.10% from 2,988,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on whether soybean crush would stay high.

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks decrease this week as soybean crush sharply falls to 1.83 mln tonnes. In the week as of Nov 27, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 924,400 tonnes, down 78,000 tonnes by 7.78% from 1,002,400 tonnes last week and up by 123.44% from 413,700 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush will further decline to 1.80 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal stocks are likely to reduce correspondingly.

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts continue decreasing this week due to fallow trade. In the week as of Nov 27, outstanding contracts in mills in domestic coastal regions hold 3,923,300 tonnes not delivered, down 606,000 tonnes by 13.38% from 4,529,300 tonnes last week and up by 35.53% from 2,894,700 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years