According to Cofeed, on the week as of Dec 25, details of soybean stocks and soybean meal stocks and outstanding contracts in coastal regions are as follows:

Soybean: Soybean stocks pick up this week, as soybean crush fell as expected due to long downtime in Rizhao under heavy air pollution. In the week as of Dec 25, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,530,200 tonnes, up 189,800 tonnes by 3.55% from 5,340,400 tonnes last week and up by 35.90% from 4,069,200 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased many more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on whether soybean crush would stay high.  

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks decline as its output reduces under lower soybean crush. In the week as of Dec 25, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 845,200 tonnes, down 10,700 tonnes by 1.25% from 855,900 tonnes last week and up by 62.44% from 520,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush is expected to stay at 1.82 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal stocks are likely to keep reducing marginally.

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts continues reducing this week. In the week as of Dec 25, outstanding contracts in mills in domestic coastal regions hold 4,121,000 tonnes not delivered, down 603,500 tonnes by 12.77% from 4,724,500 tonnes last week and up by 71.47% from 2,403,200 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years