I. National stocks

Palm oil stocks in China start to fall instead of rising this week. Up to December 25, edible palm oil stocks in China total 579,100 tonnes at nationwide ports, down 1.7% from 589,100 tonnes a week earlier; up 90,500 tonnes or 18.52% from 488,600 tonnes in the previous month; down 159,800 tonnes or 21.6% from 738,900 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 435,100 tonnes in 2018, 592,700 tonnes in 2017 and 289,500 tonnes in 2016. On an average from 2015-2019, palm oil stocks reached 527,000 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 143,300 tonnes, an increase of 10,300 tonnes or 7.7% from 133,000 tonnes last week.

With the weather getting colder, palm oil consumption slows down, so the demand becomes weaker on the whole. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be 450,000 tonnes in January. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 750,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in December, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in January are expected to be 580,000-600,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 430,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week.

III. Margins and Shipments