Today (Dec 28), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean market was closed for Christmas last Friday, and meal futures open high and rise on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 10-40 CNY to 3,200-3,310 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3310, Shandong 3240-3300, Jiangsu 3195-3300, Dongguan 3190-3210, and Guangxi 3220-3240.)

Net crushing margins for soybeans on Dalian are at loss due to high import cost. And oil mills in Shandong Province are limiting soybean meal deliveries due to tight supplies, which also helps ramp up shipments in Jiangsu Province. Hence, oil millers have strong sentiment to raise prices. However, soybean meal market has been in thin trade in the wake of sharp rises in price, for slack aquaculture in winter and low poultry stocks under previous breeding loss have slowed down terminal consumption. Besides, oil mills in southern China are bearing meal inventory pressure and have been quickening up deliveries. These are curbing meal prices. Argentina's government has urged the labor and capital parties to meet on Tuesday to address strikes. If strikes resolved, U.S. soybean futures could post losses and will thus affect meal market. Before that, short-term soybean meal prices will fluctuate to go strengthening.

Imported rapeseed meal: CBOT was closed on Christmas Day. Meal futures open high and extend rally on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,580-2,650 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, an increase of 20-30 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

China’s rapeseed imports have been affected by the stalemate between Beijing and Ottawa, so its rapeseed crush also remains small. This has boosted rapeseed meal price. China’s soybean supplies are adequate due to enormous soybean cargoes arrivals at ports. To guarantee oils supply, soybean crush maintains the high level. Moreover, aquaculture has basically ceased, and the demand for poultry feed has sharply declined as there are sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. Moreover, downstream buyers become cautious due to slow consumption and price hike. In this case, rapeseed meal stocks soar 225% to 19,500 tonnes in coastal crushing mills. Therefore, rapeseed meal market will be curbed and still fluctuate at a high level in the near term. In addition, Argentine government calls for a meeting this Tuesday aiming at jumpstarting wage talks between oilseed workers and export companies. If Argentine worker strike is resolved, U.S. soybean will likely fall back, thereby impacting meal price. Buyers can keep close eyes on it.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial rise today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY from last Friday; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY from last Friday. Small port stocks and the influence of a possible delay in new fishmeal shipment and arrivals are supportive of fishmeal prices at domestic ports. Fishmeal of certain grades are in short supply, so domestic traders raise offers today. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter and the recovery in hog herd is limited now, so feed manufacturers tend to take hand-to-mouth buying at present, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,100 tonnes, Tianjin 620 tonnes, Shanghai 19,850 tonnes, Huangpu 56,750 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,400 tonnes and 1,700 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 23 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 1,662,636 tonnes, taking up 59.81% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 40,000 tonnes per day and 1,117,364 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 28th.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices fluctuate by 30-100 CNY/tonne in some regions of China today. CBOT was closed on Christmas Day. Meal futures open high and extend rally on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. And spot soybean meal increases by 10-40 CNY/tonne. Crush margins for soybean futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean remains high. Besides, soybean meal trading gets better in Jiangsu as oil mills in Shandong limit deliveries amid tight supply. Consequently, they have intention to raise the price of soybean meal. Likewise, cottonseed cost also maintains a high level at present, which is supporting cottonseed meal prices. However, aquaculture has basically ceased, and poultry stocks are low on account of sustained losses in breeding margins, so feed consumption also slows down. These have caused cottonseed meal market to be in thin trade. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is likely to fluctuate to stay strong in a short term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.52)