Today (Dec 29), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The CIARA-CEC chamber of soybean byproduct manufacturers will meet with the worker unions on Tuesday, and the former has offered a wage raise to the latter to try to resolve strikes. Weighed by progress in negotiation over Argentine oilseed workers' strike and also due to dismal export inspection data, U.S. soybean futures fell on Monday. Meal futures open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 10-30 CNY to 3,150-3,300 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3300, Shandong 3225-3280, Jiangsu 3195-3280, Dongguan 3150-3210, and Guangxi 3200-3220.)

As aquaculture has come to a standstill, and poultry stocks are also low in the wake of previous breeding loss, coupled with the sale of hog ahead of the Lunar New Year and a slow recovery in hog breeding capacity, so terminal consumption remains sluggish at present, and downstream buyers become cautious after sharp rises in soybean meal prices. Thin trade in the soybean meal market is unable to reduce inventory pressure in southern oil mills, so that they have no choice but to quicken up delivery, which is also curbing meal prices. But net crushing margins for soybeans on Dalian are at loss due to high import cost. And in Shandong Province, soybean processors in Rizhao are still limiting the production, and processors in Qingdao are in downtime today, as soybean vessels are unable to berth due to heavy snow, so the overall soybean meal is in tight supply in this province. This helps quicken up soybean meal delivery in Jiangsu Province and oil mills are supporting meal prices. Overall, the anticipation for an end to strikes in Argentina has weighed down futures market, so short-term soybean meal market will follow futures to fluctuate and adjust, but with support of the cost side, the market is predicted to have little downside space but to fluctuate to go strengthening.

Imported rapeseed meal: Chicago soybean futures ended down on progress in Argentine labor talks and lower export inspections. Meal futures fall back with low opens on China’s exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,520-2,620 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, a decline of 30-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

This has boosted rapeseed meal price. China’s soybean supplies are adequate due to enormous soybean cargoes arrivals at ports. To guarantee oils supply, soybean crush maintains the high level. Moreover, aquaculture has basically ceased, and poultry stocks are low attributed to sustained losses in breeding margins, so feed consumption slows down. In this case, rapeseed meal stocks add to 19,500 tonnes in coastal crushing mills, weighing on rapeseed meal price. But China’s rapeseed imports have been affected by the stalemate between Beijing and Ottawa, so its rapeseed crush also remains small. This may limit rapeseed meal market declines. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price will fluctuate at the high level.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne. Small port stocks and the influence of a possible delay in new fishmeal shipment and arrivals are supportive of fishmeal prices at domestic ports, so domestic traders still have sentiment to raise prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter and the recovery in hog herd is limited now, so feed manufacturers tend to take hand-to-mouth buying at present, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,050 tonnes, Tianjin 600 tonnes, Shanghai 19,550 tonnes, Huangpu 55,850 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,200 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,120 tonnes and 2,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices decrease by 50 CNY/tonne in some regions of China today. Chicago soybean futures ended down on progress in Argentine labor talks and lower export inspections.  Meal futures open low and go down on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. And spot soybean meal declines by 10-30 CNY/tonne. Aquaculture has basically ceased, and poultry stocks are low on account of sustained losses in breeding margins. Plus, hog capacity recovery also slows due to intensive hog slaughter. Consequently, feed consumption has fallen, leading to a subdued trading in soybean meal. These have caused cottonseed meal market to be in thin trade. Besides, cottonseed cost also maintains a high level at present and cottonseed crush maintains the low level, which will limit price declines of cottonseed meal. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is likely to fluctuate to stay strong in a short term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.55)