Today is 05/05/2024
I. Soybean
Price
Domestic soybean: Farmers and traders in domestic producing regions are hoarding soybeans for higher prices, and soybean shipments are at slow pace due to widespread rain and snow in northeastern China, in addition to a sharp reduction in soybean production around Jiangsu Province.This highlights a premium in soybean quality and price on the market now. Moreover, imported soybean shipments are also constrained by strict commodity inspection, which gradually grants market share to domestic soybeans and thus bolsters domestic soybean market. However, financial pressure gradually comes close to the end of the year, so that some traders have undercut prices to recoup funds. Moreover, some protein manufacturers have been in downtime due to expensive soybeans, and market entities and food manufacturers are cautious about high prices and slow in purchasing. These are negative to domestic soybean market. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term domestic soybean prices will maintain a strengthening trend in fluctuation.
Imported soybean: Domestic purchasers tend to choose domestic soybeans and have little appetite for imported soybeans, and port shipments have been constrained by strict commodity inspections. Moreover, China is still fulfilling phase-one trade deal, and its appetite for new Brazilian soybeans remains due to healthy crush margins for forward contracts, of which gross crush margins on Dalian for Mar-May shipment are 267-299 CNY/tonne. However, imported soybean supplies are still limited at ports now, which helps limit price declines. Overall, short-term imported soybean market is predicted to keep steady. Participants can continue focusing on imported soybean arrivals and demand in China.
|
China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/Tonne） |
|||||
|
Region |
Grade |
This week |
Last week |
Variation |
|
|
Northeast China |
Heilongjiang |
Domestic, GB Grade 3 |
5400 |
5300 |
100 |
|
Inner Mongolia |
Domestic, GB Grade 3 |
5360 |
5240 |
120 |
|
|
Heilongjiang |
Imported, Russia |
N/A |
N/A |
||
|
East China |
Jiangsu |
Domestic soybean |
6900 |
6900 |
0 |
|
Shandong |
Imported, Argentina |
N/A |
N/A |
||
|
Imported, Brazil |
4750 |
4750 |
0 |
||
|
Imported, Uruguay |
4900-4950 |
4900-4950 |
0 |
||
|
North China |
Tianjin |
Non-GM,Ethiopia |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
Non-GM, Ukraine |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
Non-GM, Canada |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
GM, PNW |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
GM, U.S. GULF |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
National average |
Domestic soybean |
5400 |
5300 |
100 |
|
|
Imported soybean |
4140 |
4140 |
0 |
||
Crush: An increasing number of mills have been forced to halt production by growing pressure from swelling soybean meal, so operation rates for soybean crush sharply decline this week (Nov 21st-27th). Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,843,280 tonnes (meal 1,456,191 tonnes and oil 350,223 tonnes), down 192,400 tonnes or 9.45% from 2,035,680 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 52.64%, down 5.5% from 58.14% in the previous week. Soybean crush will continue falling to 1.80 mln tonnes next week as it still takes time to digest ballooning meal inventories, but it will rise again to 1.95 mln tonnes that following week.
Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 8.59 mln tonnes in November at current utilization rate, above than 8.3883 mln tonnes in the previous month and 7.1261 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.
In the crop year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush totals 16,396,464 tonnes, up 2,680,864 tonnes or 19.55% from 13,715,600 tonnes a year earlier.
In the calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush amounts to 86,003,150 tonnes, up 10,245,865 tonnes or 13.52% from 75,757,285 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.
Inventory: Imported soybean stocks are further lower this week due to fewer cargoes into the factory. In the week as of Nov 27, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,142,900 tonnes, down 531,600 tonnes by 9.37% from 5,674,500 tonnes last week and up by 72.10% from 2,988,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on whether soybean crush would stay high.
Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 33 cargoes with 2.174 mln tonnes this week, a total of 128 cargoes with 8.344 mln tonnes for November so far. The import is predicted to be 141 cargoes or 9.262 mln tonnes for December, 8 mln tonnes for January, 6.3 mln tonnes for February, 6.5 mln tonnes for March and 6.9 mln tonnes for April.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Imports by Country (Oct, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
Oct, 2020 |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Ethiopia |
0.37 |
507 |
-0.17 |
-2 |
0.34 |
54 |
|
Kazakhstan |
0.02 |
454 |
-0.06 |
-16 |
0.02 |
- |
|
China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Russia |
3 |
331 |
-4.21 |
-72 |
-5.85 |
27 |
|
Ukraine |
0.02 |
371 |
-0.35 |
-116 |
-0.09 |
-79 |
|
Argentina |
81.3 |
390.00 |
-19.07 |
17 |
-14.71 |
6 |
|
Brazil |
423.31 |
400 |
-301.2 |
19 |
43.99 |
5 |
|
Uruguay |
18.83 |
416 |
-7.37 |
13 |
0.14 |
23 |
|
Canada |
1.47 |
498 |
-1.17 |
-59 |
1.1 |
-87 |
|
U.S. |
339.95 |
400 |
223.09 |
8 |
225.22 |
17 |
|
Benin |
0.56 |
509 |
0.42 |
11 |
0.56 |
一 |
|
Total |
868.84 |
400 |
-110.08 |
17 |
250.73 |
10 |
II. Soybean Meal
Price: Domestic soybean meal prices first rise and then fall this week (Nov 23-27). As of this Friday, prices settle down 20-60 CNY to 3,080-3,220 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions.
|
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne) |
||||
|
Region |
This week |
Last week |
Variation |
|
|
Northeast China |
Jilin |
3,330 |
3,340 |
-10 |
|
North China |
Tianjin |
3,220 |
3,240 |
-20 |
|
Hebei |
3,220 |
3,240 |
-20 |
|
|
Central China |
Hubei |
3,160 |
3,210 |
-50 |
|
Henan |
3,260 |
3,330 |
-70 |
|
|
East China |
Shandong |
3,140 |
3,170 |
-30 |
|
Jiangsu |
3,085 |
3,120 |
-35 |
|
|
Zhejiang |
3,130 |
3,190 |
-60 |
|
|
Shanghai |
3,110 |
3,150 |
-40 |
|
|
Fujian |
3,150 |
3,200 |
-50 |
|
|
Anhui |
3,140 |
3,180 |
-40 |
|
|
South China |
Guangdong |
3,080 |
3,130 |
-50 |
|
Guangxi |
3,160 |
3,210 |
-50 |
|
|
National average |
3,147 |
3,179 |
-32 |
|
Inventory: Soybean meal stocks decrease this week as soybean crush sharply falls to 1.83 mln tonnes. In the week as of Nov 27, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 924,400 tonnes, down 78,000 tonnes by 7.78% from 1,002,400 tonnes last week and up by 123.44% from 413,700 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush will further decline to 1.80 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal stocks are likely to reduce correspondingly.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Meal Imports by Country (Oct, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
Oct, 2020 |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Denmark |
2600 |
774 |
-300 |
-8 |
1800 |
19 |
|
U.S. |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Netherlands |
82.5 |
604 |
27.5 |
-18 |
82.5 |
- |
|
China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
India |
1460.45 |
567 |
580.99 |
-1 |
1460.45 |
- |
|
Russia |
65 |
602 |
-1985.64 |
51 |
65 |
- |
|
Serbia |
0 |
- |
-21 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Total Qty. |
4207.95 |
696 |
-1698.15 |
28 |
3407.95 |
-59 |
|
China's Soybean Meal Exports by Country (Oct, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Japan |
31324.38 |
388.03 |
-20121.12 |
27.15 |
7468.60 |
5.29 |
|
Myanmar |
3300.00 |
425.00 |
0.00 |
23.00 |
3282.50 |
-507.97 |
|
Vietnam |
1146.95 |
603.38 |
178.95 |
-16.64 |
801.95 |
-50.57 |
|
Netherlands |
630.00 |
688.16 |
-513.16 |
-4.63 |
-476.24 |
95.59 |
|
Sweden |
386.68 |
616.74 |
- |
- |
-203.69 |
21.25 |
|
Mongolia |
239.23 |
508.62 |
-32.45 |
15.69 |
146.90 |
66.93 |
|
Canada |
200.00 |
513.00 |
-100.00 |
-5.00 |
-305.67 |
-81.30 |
|
Others |
40.96 |
886.11 |
-2912.06 |
320.60 |
-43297.95 |
340.47 |
|
Total |
37268.20 |
407.37 |
-23113.16 |
22.42 |
-32583.60 |
-84.64 |
III. Soybean Oil
Price: Domestic soybean oil prices retreat week this week (Nov 23-27). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 8,110-8,150 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, a decline of 100-270 CNY/tonne. The overall nationwide price index moves to 8,130 CNY/tonne, a weekly decline of 140 CNY or 1.69% from 8,270 CNY/tonne in the previous week.
|
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne) |
|||||
|
Region |
Grade |
This week |
Last week |
Variation |
|
|
South China |
Guangzhou |
GB Grade 1 |
8,110 |
8,270 |
-160 |
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
North China |
Qinhuangdao, Hebei |
GB Grade 1 |
8,150 |
8,250 |
-100 |
|
GB Grade 3 |
8,050 |
8,150 |
-100 |
||
|
Tianjin |
GB Grade 1 |
8,160 |
8,260 |
-100 |
|
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
East China |
Rizhao, Shandong |
GB Grade 1 |
8,150 |
8,280 |
-130 |
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu |
GB Grade 1 |
8,160 |
8,270 |
-110 |
|
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
National average |
GB Grade 1 |
8,130 |
8,270 |
-140 |
|
|
GB Grade 3 |
8,080 |
8,220 |
-140 |
||
Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue reducing this week due to smaller output under lower soybean crush. In the week ending Nov 27, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 1,151,000 tonnes, down 24,800 tonnes by 2.11% from 1,175,800 tonnes last week, down 117,800 tonnes by 9.28% from 1,268,800 tonnes a month earlier, and up 90,100 tonnes by 8.49% from 1,060,900 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year (2015-2019) average at the same period is 1,311,800 tonnes.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Oil Imports by Country (Oct, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/Region |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Argentina |
58570.539 |
661.609 |
12140.649 |
-13.5 |
28070.539 |
-11.94 |
|
U.S. |
0 |
- |
-20000.672 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Brazil |
3479.018 |
651.553 |
-20220.982 |
-16.57 |
-14020.982 |
-18.15 |
|
Ukraine |
904.32 |
832 |
-2786.886 |
41.33 |
-8667.014 |
99.04 |
|
Belarus |
0 |
- |
-8709.495 |
0 |
- |
|
|
Russia |
5122.409 |
800.156 |
-27450.029 |
-52.74 |
-34328.589 |
83.16 |
|
Thailand |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Italy |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
South Korea |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
North Korea |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Vietnam |
473.034 |
1037.528 |
401.326 |
31.57 |
268.832 |
7.48 |
|
Taiwan, China |
210.02 |
870.284 |
-105.66 |
21.51 |
210.02 |
- |
|
Malaysia |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Netherlands |
0 |
- |
-3.8 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sweden |
0.007 |
47857.143 |
-46.243 |
45657.4 |
-46.243 |
45986.96 |
|
India |
0 |
- |
-0.006 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Canada |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Paraguay |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Hong Kong, China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
France |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-0.001 |
- |
|
Japan |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Singapore |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Austria |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Spain |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-0.005 |
- |
|
Turkey |
1362.18 |
729.318 |
680.54 |
-5.98 |
1362.18 |
- |
|
Serbia |
0 |
- |
-310.68 |
- |
-800.96 |
- |
|
Greece |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Kazakhstan |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-115.843 |
- |
|
Israel |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Germany |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
TPKM |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Poland |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Lithuania |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Total |
70121.527 |
677.909 |
-66411.938 |
-59.35 |
-28068.066 |
-19.7 |
|
TPKM: Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu |
||||||
|
China's Soybean Oil Exports by Country (Oct, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/Region |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Japan |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Singapore |
0 |
- |
-159.2 |
- |
-306.34 |
- |
|
Myanmar |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
North Korea |
0 |
- |
-2706.64 |
- |
-10661.228 |
- |
|
HK, China |
1800.177 |
814.893 |
-407.491 |
25.34 |
-2031.909 |
86.192 |
|
Macao China |
9.5 |
1177.368 |
-4.893 |
205.85 |
0 |
95.052 |
|
Taiwan, China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Maldives |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
South Korea |
52.806 |
1093.607 |
-46.654 |
-49.79 |
52.806 |
1093.607 |
|
Malaysia |
207.71 |
774.065 |
-0.91 |
21.84 |
-170.44 |
15.385 |
|
Vietnam |
0 |
- |
-20.87 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Angola |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Niger |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Mongolia |
70.98 |
1007.89 |
-72.8 |
0.27 |
-8.044 |
-1.917 |
|
Mozambique |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Pakistan |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Cook Islands |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sierra Leone |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Bahamas |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Bangladesh |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Philippines |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Italy |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Australia |
16.56 |
1644.324 |
-89.12 |
-27.06 |
-2.4 |
446.065 |
|
Canada |
0 |
- |
-58.4 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
New Zealand |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Zimbabwe |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Nigeria |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Tunisia |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Venezuela |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Papua New Guinea |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
U.S. |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Ethiopia |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-109.36 |
- |
|
Indonesia |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-0.005 |
- |
|
Djibouti |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sao Tome and Principe |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Brazil |
237.686 |
810.001 |
237.686 |
- |
237.686 |
810.001 |
|
Total |
2395.419 |
829.902 |
-3329.291 |
-76.21 |
-12999.234 |
-149.906 |