I. National stocks
In the week ending November 27th, edible palm oil stocks in China total 488,600 tonnes at nationwide ports, up by 12.6% from 433,700 tonnes a week earlier; up 79,600 tonnes or 19.46% from 409,000 tonnes in the previous month; down 205,400 tonnes or 29.6% from 694,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 141,600 tonnes, an increase of 19,300 tonnes or 15.78% from 122,300 tonnes last week.
Palm oil cargoes intensively arrive at ports. And palm oil consumption has slowed down as weather gets colder, so the demand becomes weaker. Therefore, palm oil stocks continue rising this week. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be as high as 650,000-700,000 tonnes in November and 550,000-600,000 tonnes in December. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.
Region |
Edible Palm Oil Stocks(0'000 tonne) |
Industrial Palm Oil Stocks |
||||||
W48 |
W47 |
Change |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
W48 |
W47 |
Change |
|
Tianjin Port |
9.9 |
8.85 |
1.05 |
10.00% |
33.78% |
2.9 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
Hebei |
0.62 |
0.82 |
-0.2 |
3.33% |
14.81% |
0.13 |
0.13 |
0 |
Shandong Port |
2.03 |
1.31 |
0.72 |
-11.35% |
-65.29% |
1.08 |
0.93 |
0.15 |
East China |
16.9 |
13.4 |
3.5 |
125.33% |
-35.86% |
7 |
6.2 |
0.8 |
Guangdong |
14.78 |
16.17 |
-1.39 |
-7.79% |
-40.28% |
2.35 |
2.33 |
0.02 |
Guangxi |
3.23 |
2.52 |
0.71 |
-7.18% |
34.02% |
0.7 |
0.44 |
0.26 |
Fujian |
1.4 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
-30.00% |
-33.33% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total: |
48.86 |
43.37 |
5.49 |
19.46% |
-29.59% |
14.16 |
12.23 |
1.93 |
II. Goods Arrivals
China is projected to bring in 800,000-850,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000-700,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000-750,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000-600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes).
III. Margins and Shipments
Date |
Sailing Schedule |
CNF |
Duty Paid |
DCE |
Import Margin |
11/23/2020 |
Feb, 2021 |
865 |
6812 |
6332 |
-480 |
Apr, 2021 |
825 |
6501 |
6332 |
-169 |
|
Aug, 2021 |
765 |
6034 |
6086 |
52 |
|
Sep, 2021 |
760 |
5995 |
6086 |
91 |
|
11/24/2020 |
Dec, 2020 |
860 |
6791 |
6720 |
-71 |
Aug, 2021 |
795 |
6050 |
6116 |
66 |
|
11/25/2020 |
Jan, 2021 |
870 |
6865 |
6730 |
-135 |
Mar, 2021 |
845 |
6670 |
6382 |
-288 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
830 |
6553 |
6382 |
-171 |
|
Aug, 2021 |
775 |
6124 |
6094 |
-30 |
|
11/26/2020 |
Jan, 2021 |
870 |
6855 |
6682 |
-173 |
Mar, 2021 |
850 |
6699 |
6362 |
-337 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
832.5 |
6563 |
6362 |
-201 |
|
Aug, 2021 |
775 |
6115 |
6070 |
-45 |
|
11/27/2020 |
Apr, 2021 |
830 |
6555 |
6420 |
-135 |
Aug, 2021 |
805 |
6360 |
6092 |
-268 |
|
Sep, 2021 |
775 |
6126 |
6092 |
-34 |