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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 48, 2020)

2020-12-01 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

 

In the week ending November 27th, edible palm oil stocks in China total 488,600 tonnes at nationwide ports, up by 12.6% from 433,700 tonnes a week earlier; up 79,600 tonnes or 19.46% from 409,000 tonnes in the previous month; down 205,400 tonnes or 29.6% from 694,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 141,600 tonnes, an increase of 19,300 tonnes or 15.78% from 122,300 tonnes last week.

 

Palm oil cargoes intensively arrive at ports. And palm oil consumption has slowed down as weather gets colder, so the demand becomes weaker. Therefore, palm oil stocks continue rising this week. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be as high as 650,000-700,000 tonnes in November and 550,000-600,000 tonnes in December. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.

 

Region
/Port

Edible Palm Oil Stocks0'000 tonne

Industrial Palm Oil Stocks

W48

W47

Change

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

W48

W47

Change

Tianjin Port

9.9

8.85

1.05

10.00%

33.78%

2.9

2.2

0.7

Hebei

0.62

0.82

-0.2

3.33%

14.81%

0.13

0.13

0

Shandong Port

2.03

1.31

0.72

-11.35%

-65.29%

1.08

0.93

0.15

East China

16.9

13.4

3.5

125.33%

-35.86%

7

6.2

0.8

Guangdong

14.78

16.17

-1.39

-7.79%

-40.28%

2.35

2.33

0.02

Guangxi

3.23

2.52

0.71

-7.18%

34.02%

0.7

0.44

0.26

Fujian

1.4

0.3

1.1

-30.00%

-33.33%

0

0

0

Total

48.86

43.37

5.49

19.46%

-29.59%

14.16

12.23

1.93

 

 

II. Goods Arrivals

 

China is projected to bring in 800,000-850,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000-700,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000-750,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000-600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes).

 

III. Margins and Shipments

 

Date

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/tonne

Duty Paid
(CNY/tonne)

DCE
(CNY/tonne)

Import Margin

11/23/2020

Feb, 2021

865

6812

6332

-480

Apr, 2021

825

6501

6332

-169

Aug, 2021

765

6034

6086

52

Sep, 2021

760

5995

6086

91

11/24/2020

Dec, 2020

860

6791

6720

-71

Aug, 2021

795

6050

6116

66

11/25/2020

Jan, 2021

870

6865

6730

-135

Mar, 2021

845

6670

6382

-288

Apr, 2021

830

6553

6382

-171

Aug, 2021

775

6124

6094

-30

11/26/2020

Jan, 2021

870

6855

6682

-173

Mar, 2021

850

6699

6362

-337

Apr, 2021

832.5

6563

6362

-201

Aug, 2021

775

6115

6070

-45

11/27/2020

Apr, 2021

830

6555

6420

-135

Aug, 2021

805

6360

6092

-268

Sep, 2021

775

6126

6092

-34