Today (Dec 4), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose on Thursday on an uncertain crop outlook in South America and as U.S. dollar fell to an over two-year low, in addition to the spillover effect following a strengthening trend in soybean oil futures. Meal futures fluctuate edge up on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY to 2,990-3,120 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3120, Shandong 3050-3080, Jiangsu 2980-3030, Dongguan 2990-3000, and Guangxi 3050-3070.)

While soybean cargoes to China’s ports remain substantial, soybean meal shipments in the country have been at a slow pace recently under decreasing feed consumption, for aquaculture has been in off-season and layer stocks have also declined due to continuous losses. An increasing number of domestic mills have suspended soybean crush, but most mills are seeking to continue the production owing to strong demand for oils, so soybean meal inventory pressure will sustain for a very while. These are now weighing down meal prices. However, net crush margins for soybeans on Dalian have been at loss under high import cost, and an on-going recovery in hog sector is supporting a bright demand outlook for feed, which will help limit the price decline. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will probably follow to keep range-bound in the absence of bullish stimulus, and buyers can buy on immediate demand.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Thursday on uncertainties in soybean production outlook in South America, an over-two-year low in USD as well as spillover effect brought by strength in soybean oil futures. But rapeseed meal futures move lower after opening gains on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange due to profit taking from oils buying and meals selling. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles partly down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,360-2,450 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Soybean arrivals are huge in quantity at ports. Besides, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season. In this case, soybean meal becomes slower delivered, so more and more crushing mills halt the operation due to bloated inventory. Consequently, rapeseed meal price is dampened. Nevertheless, rapeseed crush stays at a low level due to limited availability of rapeseed amid tensions between Canada and China, and global inflation expectations still exist, which helps limit declines. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price will move with fluctuations.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,900-10,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,300-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,800-11,000 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,300-11,400 CNY/tonne. Peruvian manufacturers are bullish about the market as they have presold more than half of their cargoes. And Peruvian authorities have also imposed fishing ban from time to time since the start of this fishing season, so that market insiders forecast that the 2.78-mln-tonne of fishing quota may not be fully completed. In addition, Chinese port traders also feel free in terms of stocks and have strong sentiment in propping up prices. However, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies have little enthusiasm making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 7,100 tonnes, Tianjin 700 tonnes, Shanghai 31,300 tonnes, Huangpu 65,100 tonnes, Fuzhou 13,200 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,480 tonnes and 4,200 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted steadily at 1,360 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 1 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 761,547 tonnes, taking up 27.39% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 38,000 tonnes per day and 2,018,453 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a decrease of 20-50 CNY/tonne in several regions. Soybean crush maintains a high level amid huge imports. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season. Likewise, layer inventory slips due to negative breeding margins. Some feed mills said that poultry feed production distinctly fell, leading to a reduction in feed usage. In this case, soybean meal gets slower delivered and its stocks keep swelling, so oil plants halt the production, which causes meal price to consecutively edge down. And cottonseed meal trading also becomes tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. Additionally, U.S. soybean futures rallied last night. Meal futures swing to a bit higher, and spot soybean meal steadily fluctuates by 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Furthermore, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.55)