Today (Dec 7), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell last Friday as further rains eased crop pressure in Brazil and analysts raised estimates for 2020/21 Brazilian soybean production to a record level of 131.79 mln tonnes. Meal futures also open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices drop 10-20 CNY to 2,990-3,110 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3110, Shandong 3045-3080, Jiangsu 2980-3010, Dongguan 2990-3000, and Guangxi 3040-3070.)

China’s soybean imports are 9.58 mln tonnes in November, according to data from General Customs today. While soybean imports maintain at a high level in China, soybean meal deliveries across the country have been at a slower pace recently under decreasing feed consumption, for aquaculture has been in off-season and layer stocks have also declined due to continuous losses, so it will take a spell for mills to mitigate meal stock pressure. However, net crush margins for soybeans on Dalian have been at loss under high import cost, and an on-going recovery in hog sector is supporting a promising demand outlook for feed, which will help limit the price decline. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will probably follow to keep range-bound in the absence of bullish stimulus, and buyers can stay on the sidelines.

Imported rapeseed meal: More rainfall in Brazil relieved growth pressure of soybean. And analyst expected that Brazil’s soybean production in 2020/21 would jump to a record high of 131.79 mln tonnes. U.S. soybean futures closed lower last Friday on the news. Meal futures in China modestly pare gains today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,350-2,450 CNY/tonne in subdued trading. Rapeseed meal stocks last week increased by 50% to 6,000 tonnes. Besides, soybean arrivals are huge in quantity at ports. And aquaculture has entered into an off season. In this case, soybean meal becomes slower delivered, so more and more crushing mills halt the operation due to bloated inventory. Consequently, rapeseed meal price is dampened. Nevertheless, rapeseed crush stays at a low level due to limited availability of rapeseed amid prolonged tensions between Canada and China, and global inflation expectations still exist, which helps limit declines. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price will move with fluctuations.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are slightly higher today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY. Peruvian manufacturers are bullish about the market as they have presold more than half of their cargoes. And Peruvian authorities have also imposed fishing ban from time to time since the start of this fishing season, so that market insiders forecast that the 2.78-mln-tonne of fishing quota may not be fully completed. In addition, Chinese port traders also feel free in terms of stocks and have strong sentiment in propping up prices. However, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies have little enthusiasm making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Tianjin 660 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Huangpu 64,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,480 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,200 tonnes and 3,600 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted steadily at 1,360 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 2 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 791,918 tonnes, taking up 28.49% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 38,000 tonnes per day and 1,988,082 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 21st and 22nd.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a decrease of 30 CNY/tonne in several regions. U.S. soybean futures finished down last Friday as more rainfall in Brazil relieved pressure of soybean growth. Meal futures also fall from opening losses on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal down by 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Soybean crush maintains a high level amid huge imports. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season. Likewise, layer inventory consecutively slips due to negative breeding margins. In this case, soybean meal gets slower delivered and its stocks keep swelling. It still takes time to digest soybean meal inventory. Except that, meal price is also depressed by profit taking as investors take a large buying in oils. And cottonseed meal trading also becomes tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.54)