I. National stocks

Palm oil stocks in China this week continue growing but the rises have narrowed. In the week ending December 4^th, edible palm oil stocks in China total 490,000 tonnes at nationwide ports, up by 0.3% from 488,600 tonnes a week earlier; up 120,300 tonnes or 32.5% from 369,700 tonnes in the previous month; down 195,000 tonnes or 28.5% from 685,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 416,200 tonnes in 2018, 501,500 tonnes in 2017 and 260,500 tonnes in 2016. On an average from 2015-2019, palm oil stocks reached 470,600 tonnes. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 132,460 tonnes, a decrease of 9,140 tonnes or 6.5% from 141,600 tonnes last week.

With the weather getting colder, palm oil consumption slows down, so the demand becomes weaker. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be as high as 550,000-600,000 tonnes in December. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 800,000-850,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000-700,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000-750,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000-600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are unchanged from the estimates last week.

III. Margins and Shipments