Today (Dec 8), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures further declined on Monday as increased rains in Brazil eased soybean crop pressure and AgRural estimated Brazilian soybean acreage for 2020/21 at 38.3 million hectares, up 3.6% year on year and output at an all-time high of 132.2 mln tonnes, but the downside space was limited by higher-than-expected exports. Meal futures also slightly fluctuate on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY to 2,980-3,120 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in weaker trade. (Tianjin 3120, Shandong 3050-3080, Jiangsu 3000-3030, Dongguan 2980-3000, and Guangxi 3040-3050.)

China imported 9.58 mln tonnes of soybeans in November, according to General Customs. Soybean imports have been substantial in China for months. On the demand side, aquaculture has turned slack seasonally. And breeding margins for poultry have suffered sustained loss and layer stocks keep falling, so that there is a sharp decline in poultry feed consumption. Hence, soybean meal has been in slower delivery and it will take some time to digest inventory pressure. However, net crush margins for soybeans on Dalian have been at loss under high import cost, and an on-going recovery in hog sector is supporting a promising demand outlook for feed, which will help limit the price decline. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will probably follow to keep range-bound, and buyers can stay on the sidelines.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Monday. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate to rise slightly on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today as investors take a large buying in oils to take profit. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,360-2,470 CNY/tonne in subdued trading. Rapeseed crush stays at a low level due to limited availability of rapeseed amid prolonged tensions between Canada and China, which supports rapeseed meal price. Besides, soybean arrivals are huge in quantity at ports, leading to an ample supply of soybean. And aquaculture has entered into an off season. Likewise, layer inventory consecutively slips due to negative breeding margins. In this case, feed consumption has fallen in feed mills. And soybean meal becomes slower delivered, so more and more crushing mills halt the operation due to bloated inventory. Consequently, rapeseed meal price is dampened. It is predicted that rapeseed meal price will remain range-bound on the whole.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne. Peruvian manufacturers are bullish about the market as they have presold more than half of their cargoes. And Peruvian authorities have also imposed fishing ban from time to time since the start of this fishing season, so that market insiders forecast that the 2.78-mln-tonne of fishing quota may not be fully completed. In addition, Chinese port traders also feel free in terms of stocks and have strong sentiment in propping up prices. However, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies have little enthusiasm making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 7,100 tonnes, Tianjin 650 tonnes, Shanghai 29,500 tonnes, Huangpu 63,500 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,300 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,150 tonnes and 3,400 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted steadily at 1,360 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 6 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 931,783 tonnes, taking up 33.52% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 37,000 tonnes per day and 1,848,217 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 21st and 22nd.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable today. Brazil embraced more rainfall, relieving pressure of soybean growth. Brazil’s soybean production would reach a record peak of 132.2 mln tonnes as its sowing area at 38.30 mln hectares with an increase of 3.6% from a year earlier, according to AgRural. U.S. soybean futures further dropped on the news. Soybean crush maintains a high level amid huge imports. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season. Likewise, layer inventory consecutively slips due to negative breeding margins. In this case, soybean meal gets slower delivered and its stocks keep swelling, and it still takes time to digest soybean meal inventory, limiting meal price. And cottonseed meal trading also becomes tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.53)