Today (Dec 9), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell further on Tuesday on eased drying in South America and a stronger U.S. dollar index. Meal futures modestly decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily drop by 10-20 CNY to 2,980-3,110 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in weaker trade. (Tianjin 3110, Shandong 3040-3060, Jiangsu 2990-3030, Dongguan 2980-3000, and Guangxi 3030-3050.)

Soybean meal has been in slow delivery recently, as aquaculture has turned slack seasonally and there is a sharp decline in poultry feed consumption due to sustain losses in breeding margins for poultry and a decline in layer stocks. But as soybean arrivals at ports have been enormous and in order to guarantee oils supplies, domestic crushers will pick up operation rates in the next two week. Hence, it will take time to digest soybean meal stocks. However, net crush margins for soybeans on Dalian have been at loss under high import cost, so there is strong support on the cost side. Overall, short-term soybean meal market may follow futures to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can buy on immediate demand or make some replenishment on dips if out of stock.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate to fall on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles partly down 20 CNY/tonne at 2,360-2,440 CNY/tonne in subdued trading. Soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity. China imported 9.58 mln tonnes of soybean in November, China’s Customs data showed. Besides, aquaculture has entered into an off season. Likewise, layer inventory consecutively slips due to negative breeding margins. In this case, some feed mills said that poultry feed distinctly goes down. And soybean meal becomes slower delivered, dragging down rapeseed meal price. In addition, rapeseed crush stays at a low level due to limited availability of rapeseed amid prolonged tensions between Canada and China, and global inflation expectations still exist. Consequently, price declines of rapeseed meal price may be limited. It is predicted that rapeseed meal price will remain range-bound on the whole.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne. Peruvian manufacturers are bullish about the market as they have presold more than half of their cargoes. And Peruvian authorities have also imposed fishing ban from time to time since the start of this fishing season, so that market insiders forecast that the 2.78-mln-tonne of fishing quota may not be fully completed. In addition, Chinese port traders also feel free in terms of stocks and have strong sentiment in propping up prices. However, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies have little enthusiasm making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Tianjin 650 tonnes, Shanghai 29,300 tonnes, Huangpu 63,300 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,700 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 3,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted steadily at 1,360 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 6 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 933,975 tonnes, taking up 33.6% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 37,000 tonnes per day and 1,846,025 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 22nd.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable today. U.S. soybean futures further dropped on Tuesday on dryness relief in South America and strength on US dollars. Meal futures post a mild decrease on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal steadily goes down by 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Soybean crush maintains a high level amid huge imports. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a slack season. Likewise, layer inventory consecutively slips due to negative breeding margins. Some feed mills said that poultry feed consumption slips markedly. In this case, soybean meal gets slower delivered and its stocks keep swelling, and it still takes time to digest soybean meal inventory, limiting meal price. And cottonseed meal trading also becomes tepid. All these factors have brought cottonseed meal market bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the high cost still offers support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market may fluctuate narrowly in stability.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.53)