I. National stocks

Palm oil stocks in China continue growing this week. Up to December 11, edible palm oil stocks in China total 556,200 tonnes at nationwide ports, up by 13.5% from 490,000 tonnes a week earlier; up 165,100 tonnes or 42.2% from 391,100 tonnes in the previous month; down 157,100 tonnes or 22.02% from 713,300 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 449,300 tonnes in 2018, 543,300 tonnes in 2017 and 298,000 tonnes in 2016. On an average from 2015-2019, palm oil stocks reached 510,400 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 126,900 tonnes, a decrease of 5,560 tonnes or 4.2% from 132,460 tonnes last week.

With the weather getting colder, palm oil consumption slows down, so the demand becomes weaker. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be as high as 550,000-600,000 tonnes in December. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 800,000-850,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 650,000-700,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in November, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in December are expected to be 700,000-750,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 550,000-600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are unchanged from the estimates last week. And China is predicted to import 600,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in January.

III. Margins and Shipments