Today (Dec 17), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Wednesday on a profit-taking, but meal futures are moderately higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 10-20 CNY to 3,010-3,140 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in thin trade. (Tianjin 3140, Shandong 3085-3140, Jiangsu 3040-3100, Dongguan 3010-3050, and Guangxi 3080-3110.)

Net crush margins for soybeans on Dalian have been at loss due to high import cost, so oil mills are propping up prices, which is supporting meal prices today. However, soybean crush will keep rising in these two weeks due to adequate soybean stocks and in order to guarantee oil supply during the peak consumption season. Currently, aquaculture has come to a standstill in winter, and the demand for poultry feed also sees a sharp decline due to loss in breeding, coupled with a slower recovery in hog stocks; hence, feed production started a downtrend in November and is expected to continue falling in December. Soybean meal shipment is slow, and stocks rose 5.7% to 880,000 tonnes in coastal regions last week. Oil mills keep urging to quicken up deliveries, which is curbing gains in meal prices. In the short term, soybean meal prices will follow futures to fluctuate frequently. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower overnight on profit taking. Meal futures stage further gains on China’s exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,430-2,500 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, an increase of 30-60 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

China’s rapeseed imports have been affected by the stalemate between Beijing and Ottawa, so its rapeseed crush also remains small, which bolsters rapeseed meal price. But China’s soybean supplies are adequate due to enormous soybean cargoes arrivals at ports. Accordingly, domestic crushers will pick up operation rates over the next two weeks. Moreover, aquaculture has turned slack seasonally and there is a sharp decline in poultry feed consumption in December due to sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. Likewise, the demand for hog feed is also faltering. In consequence, soybean meal has been in slow delivery, leading to a rise in its inventory. Therefore, the uptrend of rapeseed meal market may be limited.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne. Domestic port traders bear no pressure in holding stocks under reducing fishmeal cargoes to domestic ports and a sustained decline in domestic port fishmeal stocks. However, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies have little enthusiasm making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,050 tonnes, Tianjin 600 tonnes, Shanghai 25,000 tonnes, Huangpu 61,100 tonnes, Fuzhou 10,100 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,020 tonnes and 1,700 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in part rise by 20-50 CNY/tonne in China today. U.S. soybean futures closed down on Wednesday on profit taking. Meal futures post modest gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal up by 10-20 CNY/tonne. Crush margins for soybean futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean remains high, so that soybean crushing mills prop up prices. This has boosted soybean meal price to increase. Likewise, cottonseed cost also maintains a high level at present, which is supporting cottonseed meal prices. However, aquaculture has basically ceased and there are sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. And the recovery of hog production capacity also slows down. These have affected market sentiment. In this case, soybean meal has been in slow delivery, curbing meal price. Add to that, cottonseed meal market is also in thin trade, which is also bearish to the market itself. Overall, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market may go up in stability.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.54)