I. National stocks

Palm oil stocks in China continue growing this week. Up to December 18, edible palm oil stocks in China total 589,100 tonnes at nationwide ports, up by 5.9% from 556,200 tonnes a week earlier; up 155,400 tonnes or 35.8% from 433,700 tonnes in the previous month; down 136,200 tonnes or 18.78% from 725,300 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 449,100 tonnes in 2018, 596,800 tonnes in 2017 and 274,000 tonnes in 2016. On an average from 2015-2019, palm oil stocks reached 526,800 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 133,000 tonnes, an increase of 6,100 tonnes or 4.8% from 126,900 tonnes last week.

With the weather getting colder, palm oil consumption slows down, so the demand becomes weaker on the whole. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be as high as 600,000 tonnes in December. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 750,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in December, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in January are expected to be 580,000-600,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 430,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes), down 10,000 tonnes from the estimate last week.

III. Margins and Shipments