Today (Dec 21), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures surged to their highest in 6 years last Friday, as the precipitation outlook in South American remained uncertain, coupled with strong demand from U.S. processors and China, and a strike by workers at ports and in soybean crushing mills in Argentina also added to the bullish tone. Meal futures open high and rise on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 50-80 CNY to 3110-3240 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, attracting some purchases at low levels. (Tianjin 3240, Shandong 3205-3240, Jiangsu 3150-3210, Dongguan 3100-3130, and Guangxi 3150-3200.)

Net crushing margins for soybeans on Dalian see sustained loss due to high import cost. And subject to environmental protection, oil mills in Rizhao, a city in Shandong Province, all suspend operation today and they are thus limiting the delivery, so are some large mills in Jiangsu Province. Oil mills have strong sentiment for higher prices, which bolsters meal prices to surge today. However, oil mills across the country are working at high rates under adequate soybean supplies. Currently, aquaculture has come to a standstill, and the demand for poultry feed also sees a sharp decline due to loss in breeding, which my affect the trade in soybean meal market. As the cost of importing U.S. soybeans keeps increasing and meal futures are also expanding gains, short-term soybean meal price is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate and rise. Buyers are suggested to keep appropriate stocks, but not to chase after excessively higher prices.

Imported rapeseed meal: Driven by market concerns over tightening global stocks incurred by a reduction in soybean crop in South America, U.S. soybean futures sharply rose last Friday. Meal futures stage further gains after high opens on China’s exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,500-2,600 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, an increase of 40-60 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

China’s rapeseed imports have been affected by the stalemate between Beijing and Ottawa, so its rapeseed crush also remains small, which bolsters rapeseed meal price. But China’s soybean supplies are adequate due to enormous soybean cargoes arrivals at ports. To guarantee oils supply, domestic crushers continue picking up operation rates. Moreover, aquaculture has basically ceased, impacting buyers’ enthusiasm in purchase. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market is projected to fluctuate to rebound underpinned by high price of feedstock.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne. As fishmeal inventories keep decreasing at domestic ports, and on concerns over fishmeal cargo arrivals and a suspension in container barge liners at Huangpu Port, traders still have sentiment to support prices. However, domestic demand for fishmeal is decreasing in aquaculture as the weather gets cool, so that feed companies have little enthusiasm making purchases, which is constraining the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,050 tonnes, Tianjin 600 tonnes, Shanghai 23,750 tonnes, Huangpu 59,500 tonnes, Fuzhou 10110 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,100 tonnes and 1,200 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 16 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 1,408,516 tonnes, taking up 50.67% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 40,000 tonnes per day and 1,371,484 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 22nd.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are mixed by 50 CNY/tonne in several regions of China today. U.S. soybean futures sharply rose to the highest over the past six years last Friday on uncertain precipitation across crop area in South America. Meal futures escalate the rally after high opens on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal up by 50-80 CNY/tonne in coastal regions of China. Crush margins for soybean futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean remains high. And some oil plants have limited deliveries due to environmental protection warning. These have together boosted meal price. Likewise, cottonseed cost also maintains a high level at present, which is supporting cottonseed meal prices. However, aquaculture has basically ceased, and market sentiment is depressed as there are sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. Add to that, cottonseed meal market is also in thin trade, which is also bearish to the market itself. If soybean meal continues ramping up, cottonseed meal will likely follow its rises.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.55)