Today (Dec 23), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued rising on Tuesday, but meal futures are marginally higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-30 CNY to 3,160-3,290 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3290, Shandong 3260-3310, Jiangsu 3190-3290, Dongguan 3160-3180, and Guangxi 3240-3280.)

Net crushing margins for soybeans on Dalian remain poor due to high import cost. All oil mills in Rizhao are still in downtime subject to the environmental protection and have called off the delivery, and mills in other regions of Shandong Province are also limiting the delivery, which help ramp up shipments in Jiangsu Province. Oil mills have strong sentiment to raise prices, which is bolstering meal market. However, oil mills maintain high operation rates. Meanwhile, aquaculture has come to a standstill, and the demand for poultry feed also sees a sharp decline due to loss in breeding. And downstream buyers become cautious in soybean meal market after sharp rises, so the market is in thin trade this week. Besides, oil mills in Guangdong and Guangxi are bearing meal inventory pressure and have been quickening up deliveries, so soybean meal prices are weak in southern market but strong in the north. As U.S. soybean prices keep firm, soybean meal prices will follow futures to fluctuate to keep strengthening.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures ended up on Tuesday on robust demand, the wave of strikes by Argentine workers and as Brazil’s soybean production estimate may be lowered. Rapeseed meal futures further go up but gains slow on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,550-2,660 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, a fluctuation of 10-30 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

China’s rapeseed imports have been affected by the stalemate between Beijing and Ottawa, so its rapeseed crush also remains small. And oil plants have strong intention to lift price, boosting rapeseed meal price. But China’s soybean supplies are adequate due to enormous soybean cargoes arrivals at ports. To guarantee oils supply, domestic crushers still keep operation rates high. Moreover, aquaculture has basically ceased, and the demand for poultry feed has sharply declined as there are sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. These have depressed market mentality, seeing subdued trading after price hike. But U.S. soybean still keeps a strong trend. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal market will continue fluctuating to stay strong underpinned by high cost.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne. Small port stocks and the influence of a possible delay in new fishmeal shipment and arrivals are supportive of fishmeal prices at domestic ports. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter, so feed manufacturers tend to take hand-to-mouth buying at present, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,150 tonnes, Tianjin 600 tonnes, Shanghai 23,600 tonnes, Huangpu 59,100 tonnes, Fuzhou 10,400 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,350 tonnes and 1,450 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 20 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 1,565,914 tonnes, taking up 56.33% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 40,000 tonnes per day and 1,214,086 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 23rd.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices increase by 100 CNY/tonne in several regions of China today. U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday. Meal futures post modest gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal fluctuates by 10-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions of China. Crush margins for soybean futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean remains high. And soybean crushing mills in Rizhao have been suspending operation due to environmental protection warning, so they limit the deliveries and tend to raise price. These have together boosted meal price. Likewise, cottonseed cost also maintains a high level at present, which is supporting cottonseed meal prices. However, aquaculture has basically ceased, and market sentiment is depressed as there are sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. Add to that, cottonseed meal market is also in thin trade, which is also bearish to the market itself. Driven by a surge in soybean meal, cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate to stay strong in a short term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.56)