Today (Dec 24), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures further rose on Wednesday, as Argentina port workers said they would spend Christmas on strike despite new pay offer. But domestic investors are covering positions in oils due to their strong gains, so meal futures post slight fluctuations on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today, failing to follow U.S. soybean futures to rise. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-20 CNY to 3160-3290 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3290, Shandong 3260-3300, Jiangsu 3180-3260, Dongguan 3160-3180, and Guangxi 3210-3230.)

Net crushing margins for soybeans on Dalian remain poor due to high import cost. All oil mills in Rizhao are still in downtime subject to the environmental protection and are waiting for further notice. They have called off the delivery, and mills in other regions of Shandong Province are also limiting the delivery, which help ramp up shipments in Jiangsu Province. Oil mills still have strong sentiment to raise prices. However, oil mills maintain high operation rates. Meanwhile, aquaculture has come to a standstill, and the demand for poultry feed also sees a sharp decline due to loss in breeding. Moreover, the terminal consumption is sluggish and downstream buyers become cautious in soybean meal market after sharp rises, so the market is in thin trade. Besides, oil mills in Guangdong and Guangxi are bearing meal inventory pressure and have been quickening up deliveries. The lackluster fundamentals will constrain rises in soybean meal prices, but due to sharp gains in U.S. soybean prices, soybean meal prices will fluctuate to keep strengthening overall.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures continued the surge overnight as Brazil’s soybean production would be revised down and Argentine oilseed workers and grains inspectors said on Wednesday they will spend Christmas on strike despite new pay offer by employers. Rapeseed meal futures represent modest gains on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,570-2,670 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, an increase of 10-20 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

China’s rapeseed imports have been affected by the stalemate between Beijing and Ottawa, so its rapeseed crush also remains small. This has boosted rapeseed meal price. But China’s soybean supplies are adequate due to enormous soybean cargoes arrivals at ports. To guarantee oils supply, domestic crushers still keep operation rates high. Moreover, aquaculture has basically ceased, and the demand for poultry feed has sharply declined as there are sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. In this case, rapeseed meal price is dragged down. But U.S. soybean still keeps a strong trend. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal market will continue fluctuating to stay strong driven by high cost.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne. Small port stocks and the influence of a possible delay in new fishmeal shipment and arrivals are supportive of fishmeal prices at domestic ports. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter, so feed manufacturers tend to take hand-to-mouth buying at present, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to be little changed in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,100 tonnes, Tianjin 600 tonnes, Shanghai 22,800 tonnes, Huangpu 59,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 10,500 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,330 tonnes and 1,460 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady with an increase of 20-50 CNY/tonne in several regions of China today. U.S. soybean futures further rose overnight as Argentine oilseed workers and grains inspectors said on Wednesday they will spend Christmas on strike despite new pay offer by employers. Crush margins for soybean futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean remains high. And soybean crushing mills in Rizhao have been idled due to environmental protection and they are still waiting for the notice of operation resume, so they halt the deliveries and tend to raise price. These have together boosted meal price. Likewise, cottonseed cost also maintains a high level at present, which is supporting cottonseed meal prices. However, aquaculture has basically ceased, and the demand for poultry feed is impacted by sustained losses in breeding margins for poultry. Add to that, cottonseed meal market is also in thin trade, which is also bearish to the market itself. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is likely to fluctuate to stay strong in a short term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.54)