I. National stocks

Palm oil stocks in China take a marginal recovery this week. Up to Jan 1, 2021, edible palm oil stocks in China total 582,900 tonnes at nationwide ports, up 0.67% from 579,100 tonnes a week earlier; up 92,900 tonnes or 18.96% from 490,000 tonnes in the previous month; down 211,200 tonnes or 26.6% from 794,100 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 441,800 tonnes in 2018, 588,300 tonnes in 2017 and 346,000 tonnes in 2016. On an average from 2015-2019, palm oil stocks reached 550,600 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 140,500 tonnes, a decrease of 2,800 tonnes or 1.95% from 143,300 tonnes last week.

With the weather getting colder, palm oil consumption slows down, so the demand becomes weaker on the whole. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be 430,000-450,000 tonnes in January. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period with a limited uptrend.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 750,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in December, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in January are expected to be 580,000-600,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 430,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week. Likewise, palm oil imports for February forecast at 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments