Today (Jan 5), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued closing with gains but failed to closed at the intraday high on Monday, and meal futures open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today due to profit-taking. Spot soybean meal prices go down 10-40 CNY to 3,340-3,490 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, attracting some low-level purchases with less trade overall. (Tianjin 3500, Shandong 3430-3500, Jiangsu 3420-3520, Dongguan 3370-3400, and Guangxi 3400-3450.)

Soybean crush in China is expected to pick up again in coming two weeks under adequate stocks. Moreover, aquaculture has been fallow in winter, and poultry stocks are low due to previous breeding loss, coupled with a cluster year-end sales of pigs and a slow recovery in hog breeding capacity, so mid-and-downstream buyers are cautious and soybean meal market is in thin trade, especially under high-level prices. And some oil mills have suspended production under swollen meal inventories. But soybean meal market has been in thin trade, except yesterday, during this round of price rises, so buyers still have some demand for stocking. Besides, sharp rises in U.S. soybean prices is lending support to import cost. Soybean meal market is predicted to have little downside space and keep strengthening on the whole.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures continued rising overnight but were divorced from highs at closing. Meal futures pare gains after low opens on profit taking on China’s exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,680-2,740 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, a drop of 30-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Soybean crushing mills will pick up the operation rate over the next two weeks on adequate supplies. Nevertheless, aquaculture has basically ceased, and poultry stocks are low attributed to substantial losses in breeding margins. In this case, feed consumption slows down. Rapeseed meal stocks in coastal regions have risen 74% to 34,000 tonnes, weighing on rapeseed meal price. But rapeseed crush remains at a low level due to limited imports, and oil plants are in no hurry to make sales. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price will fluctuate at high levels.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne. Domestic fishmeal stocks keep falling at present as imported cargoes are affected by the coronavirus pandemic and on the stocking up for the Chinese Lunar New Year, so traders have some sentiment to prop up or raise prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter and the recovery in hog herd is limited now, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 5,200 tonnes, Tianjin 520 tonnes, Shanghai 15,400 tonnes, Huangpu 52,500 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,600 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,100 tonnes and 2,300 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Dec/Jan shipments are quoted at 1,310 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Dec 31 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 1,937,366 tonnes, taking up 69.69% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 39,000 tonnes per day and 842,634 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 31st.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices increase by 100-150 CNY/tonne in several regions of China today. Net crush margins for soybean futures have been negative as the strength on U.S. soybean pushes up the cost of importing soybean. In this case, soyoil mills have intention to lift prices, giving a boost to soybean meal price. On the other side, cottonseed crush remains low due to its high cost, which buoys cottonseed meal price as well. But meal futures fall back with low opens on profit taking on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. And spot soybean meal declines by 10-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. In addition, aquaculture has basically ceased, and hog capacity recovery also slows. And downstream buyers are cautious as soybean meal prices climb to high levels. Moreover, cottonseed meal market is also in thin trade. Driven by high cost, cottonseed meal market still keeps strengthening in a short term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.48)