Operation rates for soybean crush across the country continue falling this week (Jan 2-8) for manpower shortage under pandemic in northeast China, belated soybean supply in some mills, and a production suspension under swollen meal inventory in parts of southern China. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,684,580 tonnes (meal 1,330,818 tonnes and oil 320,070 tonnes), down 24,300 tonnes or 1.42% from 1,708,880 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 48.11%, down 0.7% from 48.81% in the previous week.

Soybean meal market has been in strong trade this week, sharp rises in meal prices have also lifted buyers’ enthusiasm in taking delivery, and some buyers also get down to stock up for the Chinese Lunar New Year in advance for fear that the coronavirus pandemic could affect the logistics; hence, operation rates will turn to enhance in coming two weeks. Soybean crush is expected to rise to 1.93 mln tonnes next week (week 2) and to 2.03 mln tonnes in week 3.

In the crop year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush totals 27,419,644 tonnes, up 2,488,544 tonnes or 9.98% from 24,931,100 tonnes a year earlier.

In the calendar year of 2021 (from Jan. 1st, 2021), China’s soybean crush amounts to 1,928,706 tonnes, down 968,751 tonnes or 33.43% from 2,897,457 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2020.

Fig.: Soybean Weekly Crush in China (2016-2021)

Details for weekly crush by region are shown as follows: