According to Cofeed, in the week as of Jan 8, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts in main domestic regions are as follows:

Operation rates for soybean crush across the country continue falling this week (Jan 2-8) for manpower shortage under pandemic in northeast China, belated soybean supply in some mills, and a production suspension under swollen meal inventory in parts of southern China. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,684,580 tonnes (meal 1,330,818 tonnes and oil 320,070 tonnes), down 24,300 tonnes or 1.42% from 1,708,880 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 48.11%, down 0.7% from 48.81% in the previous week.

Soybean meal market has been in strong trade this week, sharp rises in meal prices have also lifted buyers’ enthusiasm in taking delivery, and some buyers also get down to stock up for the Chinese Lunar New Year in advance for fear that the coronavirus pandemic could affect the logistics; hence, operation rates will turn to enhance in coming two weeks. Soybean crush is expected to rise to 1.93 mln tonnes next week (week 2) and to 2.03 mln tonnes in week 3.

Soybean oil stocks further reduce this week, as soybean crush continues a downtrend. In the week ending Jan 8, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 884,350 tonnes, down 74,000 tonnes by 7.72% from 958,350 tonnes last week, down 180,650 tonnes by 16.96% from 1,065,000 tonnes month on month, and down 40,150 tonnes by 4.34% from 924,500 tonnes year on year. And the five-year (2016-2020) average at the same period is 1,185,200 tonnes.

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years