I. National stocks

Palm oil stocks in China take a further recovery this week. As of Jan 8, edible palm oil stocks in China total 612,500 tonnes at nationwide ports, up 5.1% from 582,900 tonnes a week earlier; up 56,300 tonnes or 10.12% from 556,200 tonnes in the previous month; down 239,800 tonnes or 28.14% from 852,300 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 509,900 tonnes in 2019, 638,200 tonnes in 2018 and 280,000 tonnes in 2017. On an average from 2016-2020, palm oil stocks reached 578,600 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 132,900 tonnes, a decrease of 7,600 tonnes or 5.4% from 140,500 tonnes last week.

Palm oil cargoes are successively arriving at some ports. With the weather getting colder, palm oil consumption slows down, so the trading has become lighter in palm oil market. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be 430,000-450,000 tonnes in January. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period with a limited uptrend.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 580,000-600,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 430,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in January, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in February are expected to be 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week.

III. Margins and Shipments