Today (Jan 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Wednesday due to profit-taking after prices hit the highest level in six and a half years. Meal futures fluctuates fractionally on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 20-30 CNY to stay at 3,800-4,160 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, still in tepid trade. (Tianjin 4160, Shandong 4070-4100, Jiangsu 4000-4050, Dongguan 3800-3850, and Guangxi 3850-3920.)

Net crush margins for soybeans on Dalian are still at loss. Soybean meal supply in northern markets is getting tight as local millers choose to limit sales on a surge in demand when buyers are busy stocking up for the Lunar New Year, and southern millers are shipping cargoes to northern regions now. Soybean meal stocks have been notably lower in China under low crush in the past two weeks, and some millers have sold out spot meal for January. Oil millers and manufacturers have strong sentiment to stall sales, so that spot basis is widening. In terms of transportation, it is difficult to get trucks as drivers all need to provide valid certificate required by the measures to contain the coronavirus, and spot meal circulation is in tensions, so spot soybean meal prices keep strong. But downstream buyers are cautious about current high prices, which is adding bearish sentiment to soybean meal prices. Supported by strong U.S. soybean prices and as domestic buyers are stocking up for the festival, soybean meal market in China is predicted to have little downside space and to maintain a relatively strong trend in the short run.

Rapeseed meal: Soybean futures closed down on CBOT on profit taking. Zhengzhou meal futures go up today but set below the previous close. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,940-3,040 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, a drop of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Soybean crushing mill may pick up the operation rate over the next two weeks due to an adequate supply of soybean. Besides, aquaculture has basically ceased, and poultry stocks are low attributed to substantial losses in breeding margins previously. In this case, feed consumption slows down, slackening demand for meals. Thus, rapeseed meal inventories continue rising. These have together dragged rapeseed meal price to fluctuate. But the cost of importing soybean remains high, and rapeseed crush maintains the low level amid lower imports, which may buoy rapeseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price may fluctuate at the high level.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne. Domestic fishmeal stocks keep falling at present so that traders have some sentiment to prop up or raise prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter and the recovery in hog herd is limited now, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 4,500 tonnes, Tianjin 450 tonnes, Shanghai 11,800 tonnes, Huangpu 45,800 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,450 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,030 tonnes and 3,200 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Jan/Feb shipments are quoted at 1,340 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,560 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Jan 12 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 2,273,771 tonnes, taking up 81.79% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 37,000 tonnes per day and 506,229 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 31st.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in part rise by 50 CNY/tonne in China today. Net crush margins for soybean futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean stays high. Besides, downstream enterprises are afraid that logistics would be affected by the resurgence of COVID-19, so they have started stocking up ahead of the Lunar New Year. With an unexpected increase in demand, soyoil mills make limited sales. However, soybean crush has set a low level for two weeks in a row, leading to a distinct decline in soybean meal stocks. Many oil plants have already sold January spot contract. Furthermore, drivers are required to submit valid certificates due to the anti-epidemic measures in many places. Under the shortages of vehicles, soybean meal supply gets tightened in the market, which causes its spot price to stay firm. Additionally, cottonseed cost remains high, which buoys cottonseed meal price as well. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market will maintain a strong uptrend.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.47)