Operation rates for soybean crush pick up as expected this week (Jan 9-15). Crush margins are profitable in the wake of rises in both futures and spot prices, and due to robust soybean meal trade after sharp price rises, its inventory is getting tight in northern China while swollen inventory has eased among southern mills who have shipped their cargoes to northern markets. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,981,980 tonnes (meal 1,565,764 tonnes and oil 376,576 tonnes), up 297,400 tonnes or 17.65% from 1,684,580 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 55.89%, up 7.78% from 48.11% in the previous week. As operation rates will continue rising in the coming two weeks, soybean crush is predicted to be about 2 mln tonnes next week (week 3) and 2.05 mln tonnes in week 4.

In the crop year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush totals 29,401,624 tonnes, up 2,468,824 tonnes or 9.17% from 26,932,800 tonnes a year earlier.

In the calendar year of 2021 (from Jan. 1st, 2021), China’s soybean crush amounts to 3,910,686 tonnes, down 988,471 tonnes or 20.18% from 4,899,157 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2020.

Fig.: Soybean Weekly Crush in China (2016-2021)

Details for weekly crush by region are shown as follows: