I. National stocks

Palm oil stocks in China shift to decline after a rise. As of Jan 15, edible palm oil stocks in China total 607,000 tonnes at nationwide ports, down 0.9% from 612,500 tonnes a week earlier; up 17,900 tonnes or 3.04% from 589,100 tonnes in the previous month; down 232,100 tonnes or 27.66% from 839,100 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 525,800 tonnes in 2019, 639,200 tonnes in 2018 and 465,700 tonnes in 2017. On an average from 2016-2020, palm oil stocks reached 615,400 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 138,600 tonnes, an increase of 5,700 tonnes or 4.3% from 132,900 tonnes last week.

There are less arrivals of palm oil cargoes this week. Buyers are active in purchasing palm oil. And the trading volume totals 38,450 tonnes, up 18,050 tonnes by 88.48% versus 20,400 tonnes in the previous week. But with the weather getting colder, palm oil consumption slows down. Moreover, market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be 430,000-450,000 tonnes in January. It is projected that palm oil stocks still carry the potential to rebound in later period with a limited uptrend.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 580,000-600,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 430,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in January, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in February are expected to be 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are flat from the estimate last week.

III. Margins and Shipments