Today (Jan 18), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell last Friday on profit-taking after prices hit a fresh high in six and a half years and on precipitation forecast in Argentina. Meal futures open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices sit down 30-60 CNY at 3,770-4,130 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in weaker trade. (Tianjin 4130, Shandong 3980-4070, Jiangsu 3940-4010, Dongguan 3770-3840, and Guangxi 3760-3810.)

In the week as of Jan 15, Chinese oil mills drastically picked up soybean crush to 1.98 mln tonnes to meet the demand for soybean meal and oil, but soybean meal has been seeing less trade as downstream buyers become cautious as meal prices have risen to a high level. Hence, short-term soybean meal prices are in correction. But soybean import cost remains stubbornly high. And oil mills have sold out spot meal for January for buyers are stocking up for the Chinese Lunar New Year, so soybean meal inventory has dropped to a relatively low level briskly. Oil millers and manufacturers are strongly supporting meal prices and some are staying on the sidelines, which will limit decline in meal prices. In the short run, soybean meal prices may follow futures to fluctuate and adjust at high levels, and buyers can wait for the moment.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Friday on profit taking and favorable rainfall in South America. Meal futures fall back with low opens today on China’s exchanges. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,860-2,960 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, a drop of 40-60 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Soybean crush rises by 18% to 1.98 mln tonnes due to an adequate supply of soybean. Besides, aquaculture has basically ceased, and poultry stocks are low attributed to substantial losses in breeding margins previously. In this case, feed consumption slows down, slackening demand for meals. Rapeseed meal inventories have declined to 41,000 tonnes but still increased by 148% compared to the same period last year. These have together weighed on rapeseed meal price. But the cost of importing soybean remains high, and rapeseed crush maintains the low level amid lower imports, which may limit downside of rapeseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price may move with fluctuations.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks have been reducing in Peru, so that local manufacturers are propping up prices. And fishmeal stocks also continue decreasing at domestic ports. Hence domestic traders have sentiment to support and lift prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter and the recovery in hog herd is limited now, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 3,850 tonnes, Tianjin 480 tonnes, Shanghai 8,800 tonnes, Huangpu 42,800 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,600 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,100 tonnes and 3,400 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Jan/Feb shipments are quoted higher by 50 USD at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,600 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in part fluctuate by 50-200 CNY/tonne in China today. U.S. soybean futures settled lower on Friday on profit taking. Dalian meal futures also fall back with low opens today, and spot soybean meal declines by 30-60 CNY/tonne. Aquaculture has basically ceased, and hog capacity recovers slowly, seeing a subdued trade of cottonseed meal. The cost of importing soybean stays high, and the stockpiling of soybean meal is on-going, so many oil plants have already sold January spot contract. As a result, soybean meal stocks rapidly drop to a relatively low level. Oil plants and dealers have strong intention to lift price. Additionally, cottonseed cost remains high, which supports cottonseed meal price as well. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is projected to fluctuate at the high level in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.48)