Today (Jan 19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: CBOT was closed on Monday and U.S. soybean futures lose more ground and drop below 1,400 cents after trade resumed today. Meal futures follow to fluctuate and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 10-40 CNY partially at 3,740-4,130 CNY/tonne in coastal regions in thin trade. (Tianjin 4130, Shandong 3980-4050, Jiangsu 3855-3960, Dongguan 3740-3800, and Guangxi 3740-3780.)

As soybean imports remain huge and to satisfy the demand for oil and meal, Chinese crushers sharply picked up weekly soybean crush by 18% to 1.98 mln tonnes last week and will probably continue to raise it to 2 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks. And downstream buyers get more cautious in soybean meal market about current high prices, so the trade is reducing. But soybean import cost remains stubbornly high. And oil mills have sold out spot meal for January for buyers are stocking up for the Chinese Lunar New Year, so soybean meal inventory has dropped to a relatively low level briskly. Oil millers and manufacturers are strongly supporting meal prices and some are staying on the sidelines, which will limit decline in meal prices. In the short run, soybean meal prices may follow futures to fluctuate and adjust at high levels, and buyers can wait for the moment.

Rapeseed meal: CBOT was closed on Monday. Meal futures continue falling today on China’s exchanges. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,850-2,950 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, a drop of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Soybean crush may rise to more than 2 mln tonnes over the next two weeks due to an adequate supply of soybean. Besides, aquaculture has basically ceased, and poultry stocks are low attributed to substantial losses in breeding margins previously. In this case, feed consumption slows down, slackening demand for meals. Rapeseed meal inventories stay at a high level. These have together weighed on rapeseed meal price. But the cost of importing soybean remains high, and rapeseed crush maintains the low level amid lower imports, which may limit downside of rapeseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal price may move with fluctuations.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks have been reducing in Peru, so that local manufacturers are propping up prices. And fishmeal stocks also continue decreasing at domestic ports. Hence domestic traders have sentiment to support and lift prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter and the recovery in hog herd is limited now, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 3,800 tonnes, Tianjin 460 tonnes, Shanghai 7,900 tonnes, Huangpu 41,900 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,850 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,150 tonnes and 3,600 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Jan/Feb shipments are quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,600 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Jan 14 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 2,308,738 tonnes, taking up 83.05% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 36,000 tonnes per day and 471,262 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 22nd.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a partial increase of 50 CNY/tonne in China today. The cost of importing soybean stays high, and the stockpiling for soybean meal is on-going, so many oil plants have already sold out January spot contract. As a result, soybean meal stocks rapidly drop to a relatively low level. Oil plants and dealers have strong intention to lift price. Additionally, cottonseed cost remains high, which supports cottonseed meal price as well. However, CBOT was closed on Monday. Soybean futures slump and set below 1,400 cents after the trading resumes today. Affected by this, meal futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuate to drop. Spot soybean meal decreases by 10-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Besides, aquaculture has basically ceased, and hog capacity recovers slowly, seeing a subdued trade of cottonseed meal. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is projected to fluctuate at the high level in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.49)