According to Cofeed, in the week as of Jan 22, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts in main domestic regions are as follows:

Chinese crushers continue speeding up operation rates for soybeans this week (Jan 16-22, 2021) due to decent crush margins and as downstream buyers are taking delivery at a brisk pace. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 2,107,620 tonnes (meal 1,665,020 tonnes and oil 400,448 tonnes), up 125640 tonnes or 6.3% from 1,981,980 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 59.43%, up 3.54% from 55.89% in the previous week. As operation rates will remain high in the next two weeks, soybean crush is forecast to stay at 2.1 mln tonnes next week but fall to 2.05 mln tonnes that following week with the coming of the Chinese Lunar New Year.

Soybean oil stocks further decline this week as terminal buyers take delivery at a fair pace, albeit a rise in soybean crush. Spot soybean oil is still tight in some regions, and some oil mills have a lot of outstanding contracts. In the week ending Jan 22, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 815,700 tonnes, down 32,300 tonnes by 3.81% from 848,000 tonnes last week, down 202,800 tonnes by 19.91% from 1,018,500 tonnes month on month, and down 35,200 tonnes by 4.14% from 850,900 tonnes year on year. And the five-year (2016-2020) average at the same period is 1,113,900 tonnes.

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years