Today (Jan 27), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued bouncing on Tuesday as slow harvest progress in Brazilian crops extended the export window for U.S. soybeans and Brazilian truck drivers might hold a nationwide strike next week, and meal futures also rise after high opens on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices follow to rise by 40-70 CNY at 3,620-3,880 CNY/tonne, attracting some purchases on low-level forward basis. (Tianjin 3880, Shandong 3800-3820, Jiangsu 3760-3830, Dongguan 3620-3670, and Guangxi 3650-3720.)

Soybean import cost remains at a high level at present, and domestic soybean meal stocks have notably fallen to 480,000 tonnes due to quick deliveries ahead of the Spring Festival. Some millers have limited soybean meal goods for Jan-Feb sales so that they have strong sentiment to hike prices. Soybean meal prices are thus bolstered to climb in the wake of a rise in U.S. soybeans. But weekly soybean crush is at a very high level of 2.1 mln tonnes in recent two weeks, and investors also want to recoup funds toward the end of the lunar year, which may add to fluctuations in the market.

Rapeseed meal: CBOT soybean futures closed sharply higher on Tuesday as Brazil’s soybean harvest delay extended the export window for US soybean and its truck drivers would likely have national strikes next week. Meal futures extend the rally after high opens today on China’s exchanges. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,680-2,750 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, an increase of 30-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. The cost of importing soybean stays high. And soybean meal prices keep strengthening due to a steep fall in its inventory, boosting rapeseed meal prices. However, soybean crush will likely reach 2.10 mln tonnes and 2.05 mln tonnes respectively in the coming two weeks due to sufficient supply of soybeans. Besides, livestock and poultry are slaughtered intensively this moment with the upcoming Spring Festival, and aquaculture has basically ceased, slackening demand for meals. Rapeseed meal inventories keep increasing, and thereby cracking down meal prices. Thus, short-term rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate to stay strong following soybean meal.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep firm today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,100-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,100-11,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks will continue reducing at domestic ports before the Lunar New Year, and offers from foreign markets also keep firm, so traders have sentiment to support and hike prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. In the short run, domestic fishmeal market is expected to steady with slight adjustments.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 2,700 tonnes, Tianjin 280 tonnes, Shanghai 5,500 tonnes, Huangpu 37,760 tonnes, Fuzhou 11,700 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 2,600 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Jan/Feb shipments are quoted 20 USD at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,650 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Jan 24 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 2,413,979 tonnes, taking up 86.83% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 32,000 tonnes per day and 366,021 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 26th.)

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a partial increase of 50-100 CNY/tonne in China today. Brazilian soybean harvest is in slow progress, which is beneficial for U.S. soybean export. CBOT soybean futures soared overnight on the news. Meal futures maintain the momentum after high opens on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange. Spot soybean meal rises by 40-70 CNY/tonne. The cost of importing soybean stays high, and buyers accelerate deliveries of soybean meal contracted previously with the forthcoming Spring Festival, leading to a drastic drop in soybean meal stocks. In this case, factories have strong intention to raise price, boosting soybean meal to rebound following US soybean. Moreover, aquaculture has basically ceased, and hog capacity recovery has slowed, seeing a subdued trade of cottonseed meal. Additionally, cottonseed cost remains high, which supports cottonseed meal price as well. It is projected that short-term cottonseed meal market will still fluctuate at the high level.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.47)