I. National stocks

Edible palm oil stocks in China slip this week, mainly due to less arrival of palm oil boatloads and better trading. In the week ending Jan 29, edible palm oil stocks in China total 604,900 tonnes at nationwide ports, down 1.5% from 614,200 tonnes a week earlier; up 22,000 tonnes or 3.77% from 582,900 tonnes in the previous month; down 270,100 tonnes or 30.87% from 875,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 640,700 tonnes in 2019, 657,500 tonnes in 2018 and 485,700 tonnes in 2017. On an average from 2016-2020, palm oil stocks reached 647,700 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 128,100 tonnes, an increase of 800 tonnes or 0.6% versus 127,300 tonnes in the previous week.

Market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be around 450,000 tonnes in February. Besides, the Spring Festival is less than two weeks away. But due to the second wave of COVID-19, local governments call on people to have the Spring Festival in-place and try not to return to their hometown. With the family gathering being less frequent, market participants are afraid that the demand for edible oils will slacken. It is projected that palm oil stocks will not change too much in February.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 400,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in February, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in March are expected to be 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments