Today (Feb 4), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures sharply rose on Monday as soybean supplies could be tightening in the U.S., soybean harvests were disrupted by more rains in Brazil, and soybean exports were affected by truck drivers’ strikes in Argentina. Meal futures notably rally on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices mostly go up 30-70 CNY at 3,590-3,800 CNY/tonne, attracting more low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3800, Shandong 3760-3790, Jiangsu 3660-3690, Dongguan 3590-3650, and Guangxi 3660-3680.)

China’s soybean meal stocks decline sharply to 410,000 tonnes at present, as downstream buyers have been making replenishment at a brisk pace on concerns of supply shortages amid the pandemic, and some mills have also sold out spots for February. And soybean loading is slow in Brazil, so that monthly soybean arrivals are forecast to be only 6.2-6.4 mln tonnes in February and March. The majority of soybean processors have a downtime schedule during the Chinese New Year holidays, so that processors as well as distributors are supporting meal prices. But investors are recouping funds ahead of the Lunar New Year, farmers are rushing to sell livestock and poultry for the festival, and aquaculture is still stagnant during the ongoing winter. Besides, downstream buyers are on their way to home earlier this year. Hence, soybean meal market has been in tepid trade for days, which may be cubing rises in soybean meal prices. Overall, soybean meal prices may continue following futures to fluctuate frequently before the festival, and buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment but not to chase after excessive rises.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures rose sharply on Wednesday. Meal futures on China’s exchanges stop declining and rebound today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,710-2,860 CNY/tonne in coastal regions today, an increase of 70-80 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Net margins for futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean stays high. And soybean meal stocks significantly fall, which is bullish for rapeseed meal price. However, soybean crush is projected to stay at an extremely high level of 2.05 mln tonnes as soybean is in adequate supply. At the moment, livestock and poultry are slaughtered intensively, and aquaculture has basically ceased. Consequently, the demand for meals gets poor, and rapeseed meal inventories have risen by 5.9% to 44,500 tonnes, curbing meals prices. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market is predicted to follow soybean meal to stay strong but likely fluctuate frequently.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep firm today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,100-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,100-11,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks will continue reducing at domestic ports before the Lunar New Year, and offers from Peruvian markets also keep firm, so traders have sentiment to support prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter, and the market is in reducing trade as most feed plants have made replenishment with the approaching of the lunar new year, which together curb the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. In the short run, domestic fishmeal market is expected to steady with slight adjustments.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 2,230 tonnes, Tianjin 260 tonnes, Shanghai 4,100 tonnes, Huangpu 34,800 tonnes, Fuzhou 10,900 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,050 tonnes and 2,150 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Feb/Mar shipments are quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,650 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable in China today. With the Lunar New Year coming soon, investors are recouping their funds, and livestock and poultry are slaughtered intensively for the moment. Meanwhile, aquaculture has basically ceased, and downstream buyers are about to end the stockpiling before the holiday. In recent days, soybean meal trading is tepid, but soybean crush still stays high. All these factors are bearish for meals prices. Besides, the slow recovering of hog capacity leads to a subdued trade of cottonseed meal. But U.S. soybean futures soared on Wednesday. And Dalian meal futures rebound after declines today. Spot soybean meal mainly increases by 30-70 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Additionally, cottonseed cost remains high, which supports cottonseed meal as well. It is projected that short-term cottonseed meal market will keep steady and fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.46)