Today (Feb 5), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The market was expecting the USDA to continue lowering down U.S. soybean ending-stocks in supply and demand report due next Tuesday, Brazilian soybean harvest was only 2% completed to record the slowest in recent ten years due to rains, and U.S. soybean exports were also brisk; hence, U.S. soybean futures rose on Thursday. Meal futures post smaller gains today than in previous session on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-50 CNY at 3,600-3,780 CNY/tonne, attracting more low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3780, Shandong 3720-3770, Jiangsu 3670-3690, Dongguan 3580-3600, and Guangxi 3680-3700.)

Net crush margins for imported soybeans are still negative on Dalian. And domestic millers are support meal prices due to a sharp decline in soybean meal inventory and a majority of millers will be in downtime during the Lunar Year holidays. But with the approaching of the Chinese Lunar New Year, investors are recouping funds, and farmers are rushing to sell livestock and poultry. And aquaculture is still in a standstill during the winter. Besides, downstream buyers are making replenishment earlier than in previous years and go for holidays due to the pandemic this year. Therefore, soybean meal market has been in tepid trade for days, which is curbing meal prices. Overall, soybean meal market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate frequently ahead of the festival.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up overnight. Meal futures on China’s exchanges also continue rising today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,750-2,900 CNY/tonne in coastal regions today, an increase of 20-30 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Net margins for futures have been negative as the cost of importing soybean stays high. And soybean meal stocks significantly fall, which bolsters rapeseed meal price. However, investors are successively recouping their funds with the forthcoming Chinese New Year. At the moment, livestock and poultry are slaughtered intensively, and aquaculture has basically ceased. Consequently, the demand for meals gets poor, leading to a subdued trade in rapeseed meal. This has limited its price rises. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market is predicted to follow soybean meal to stay strong but likely fluctuate frequently.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep firm today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,100-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,100-11,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks will continue reducing at domestic ports before the Lunar New Year, and offers from Peruvian markets also keep firm, so traders have sentiment to support prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter, and the market is in reducing trade as most feed plants have made replenishment with the approaching of the lunar new year, which together curb the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. In the short run, domestic fishmeal market is expected to steady with slight adjustments.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 2,380 tonnes, Tianjin 300 tonnes, Shanghai 4,270 tonnes, Huangpu 34,700 tonnes, Fuzhou 10,800 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,030 tonnes and 2,250 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Feb/Mar shipments are quoted higher by 30 USD at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable in China today. With the Lunar New Year coming soon, investors are recouping their funds, and livestock and poultry are slaughtered intensively for the moment. Meanwhile, aquaculture has basically ceased, and downstream buyers are about to end the stockpiling before the holiday. In recent days, soybean meal trading is tepid, which curbs meals prices. Soybean meal fluctuates at a narrow range today. Besides, the slow recovering of hog capacity leads to a subdued trade of cottonseed meal. But many oil plants plan to suspend the operation during the Spring Festival holiday, so they tend to prop up prices. Additionally, cottonseed cost remains high, which supports cottonseed meal as well. It is projected that cottonseed meal market will keep steady and fluctuate narrowly in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.47)