According to Cofeed, in the week as of Feb 5, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts in main domestic regions are as follows:

Operation rates for soybean crush fall as expected this week (Jan 30-Feb 5) with the approaching of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1987300 tonnes (meal 1569967 tonnes and oil 377587 tonnes), down 161500 tonnes or 7.5% from 2148800 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 56.04%, down 4.55% from 60.59% in the previous week. As operation rates will decline toward the end of the lunar year and soybean shortages, soybean crush is predicted to decline to 890,000 tonnes next week and further to 400,000 tonnes in week 7.

Soybean oil stocks start to rise this week as shipments slow down with the completion of festival replenishment for packaging oils toward the Lunar New Year, albeit a decline in soybean crush.In the week ending Feb 5, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 836,600 tonnes, up 32,050 tonnes by 3.98% from 804,550 tonnes last week, down 93,400 tonnes by 10.04% from 930,000 tonnes month on month, and down 11,500 tonnes by 1.36% from 848,100 tonnes year on year. And the five-year (2016-2020) average at the same period is 1,099,500 tonnes. 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years