I. National stocks

Edible palm oil stocks in China rebound again this week, mainly due to some arrivals of palm oil boatloads and subdued trading. In the week ending Feb 5, edible palm oil stocks in China total 619,300 tonnes at nationwide ports, up 2.3% from 604,900 tonnes a week earlier; up 6,800 tonnes or 1.1% from 612,500 tonnes in the previous month; down 325,800 tonnes or 34.47% from 945,100 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 670,700 tonnes in 2019, 630,500 tonnes in 2018 and 485,700 tonnes in 2017. On an average from 2016-2020, palm oil stocks reached 670,300 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 119,400 tonnes, a decrease of 8,700 tonnes or 6.8% versus 128,100 tonnes in the previous week.

Market expects the imports of RBD palm olein to be around 250,000 tonnes in February. But market participants are afraid that the demand for edible oils will slacken with the Spring Festival holiday coming at next week and the recurrent COVID-19. It is projected that palm oil stocks will not change too much in February.

II. Goods Arrivals

China is projected to bring in 400,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in February, according to the latest statistics by Cofeed. And palm oil imports in March are expected to be 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes). Both are unchanged from the estimate in the previous week.

III. Margins and Shipments